I'm going to shock some people here. I'm taking everything I've been saying about Splinterlands and turning it on its head. I'm expecting a rally that puts the last one to shame. Here's why.
Here are truths about Splinterlands.
- It's filled with bots that farm value as passive income
- The value those bots are draining comes from the human players who bring their passion, interest, irrational loves, bad investing, and ability to create community into the game.
- There are likely millions more bots coming
- There is a supply issue that has held back growth for months and could keep holding back growth for years to come if not dealt with.
- With the current structure of the game, the amount of supply already in the game could support millions more players if they never print another card.
- The supply problem is solvable in many ways
- It's likely they just solved it
- By the end of the year, its possible Splinterlands turns its card glut into a supply shortage with mostly bots
- If they do, SPS will go to the moon when Rift Watchers comes out
- That will send validators higher
- Land
I've spent 9 months talking about how Splinterlands is in a world of trouble and I've been right. I've had a few times where I thought we'd have a small turnaround and each time the devs have destroyed it like it was on purpose.
I am now pretty sure the devs have been trolling us.
Today I want to explore the idea that they just solved almost every problem they've had with the new rewards system even though it's taken me a few days of examining every belief I have about the game to get to this conclusion.
The devs made some statements in the last AMA that are just insanely stupid. But whereas before I wondered how they could possibly believe them, I'm now wondering if they don't just say some of this stuff to troll their detractors like me who will spend way too much energy disproving them.
Consider three things they said in the AMA.
- Its likely bot owners just give up and stop farming because they would have to rent some cards now to get rewards.
This statement is provably stupid. Bots are all about arbitrage. A bot has no problem spending $0.10 to make $0.11. Especially if they already have the spell book and are running for free. I this case for a little while they will be spending $0.05 to make $0.40. They aren't going anywhere.
- It's possible there's reward deflation because these bots will just give up and bots are hundreds of thousands of player accounts so even though we pay most people more, the net result of losing hundreds of thousands of players could be reward deflation.
This statement is completely ridiculous. The amount of rewards going out for a weak playing bot in bronze just wet up by multiples from what it was even after they spend on rentals. What makes this even dumber is that if it did work that way, Splinterlands would collapse under its own weight. Splinterlands needs those bots to use all the cards they've printed. And as you'll see, the genius of this move is bot growth, not losing them.
- Bots are just like everyone else. Who cares if it's a bot or a person as long as they spend a little its good for all of us.
Again, provably stupid statement. Bots farm value brought in by human players. Bots multiply their efforts and cause everyone to work for slimmer margins no matter how much time and effort you put in. Since a bot puts in far less and can multiply its efforts, bots make playing unsustainable for humans. They also are only playing if they can remove more value than they put in. Humans on the other hand are not efficient. We invest terribly. We buy things because we love them even if they won't make us profit, we create community that attracts other people and creates more payoff for being here than just the rewards you can sell off. Games like this need that value. Bots monetize value and treat it as passive income for the bot owner.
But what happens when they say these things? I go off and spend the next 45 minutes in the comments raging in a story about why its all stupid and what those ideas would actually get them.
Just masterful trolling guys.
Bravo!!
I've gotten used to the dev doing and saying really dumb stuff and then watching the market predictably tank amongst a chorus of praise. I've rationalized it to myself. I've used my years of psychology training to try to understand how they could possibly believe these things.
But one of the things I've always said is the problems with Splinterlands are solvable. And the reason I've stuck around is because if they ever did the things to solve them, the potential for this game and market are enormous.
When the AMA came out, I got caught up in the stupid things they said and just shook my head and thought, here we go again with the doing the wrong thing and justifying it with nonsense, I've spent the last several days thinking deeper into it and realizing, they might have just knocked it out of the park.
All the problems I've thought were solvable but gave up most hope that they would ever solve them might have just gotten solved.
And for right now, I'm choosing to believe that they have been very successfully trolling people because the set up they just created is too good to just be something morons stumbled across.
When they came out and said, the biggest problem is the free cards it sounded stupid. The problem is the supply glut that keeps mounting. The problem is the lack of player growth. The problem is that 75% of your players are value faming parasitic bots that won't stop feeding until the host is dead.
What they are suggesting is more inventory, attracting more bots which will drain more of the value and keep players away. It was easy to jump on this idea when they said the stupid things above. It was easy to assume this was just more of the same.
But I've since reassessed. I felt too strongly about it and that's never a good thing so I started asking myself where I could be wrong this time and I was very surprised with what I came up with.
There were several questions I had to ask myself about moves I've seen from the devs that have very predictably hurt the game but were sold as good moves that would help. Especially since most of them are actually lining up now to be solid moves. Moves like not banning bots. Like crushing bronze rewards. Like flooding the game with cards. Let's go over a few.
First, bots are every bit the host killing parasite I've always said they are.
But, since day one bots have been a growth strategy for Splinterlands. I think the devs understand the danger of them but also realize that for the success they want, bots are a necessary evil. I think all the "it's a decentralized game so we can't choose who plays" and all that is a nonsense excuse because they don't want to admit that without bots, Splinterlands doesn't exist.
When they created this game bots started out as part of the growth strategy in several ways.
The first is the most obvious. With only a few players, finding someone to play against on short notice who is on your level becomes very unlikely. And since you don't want to face the same person over and over again, having a large supply of bots in the game is necessary.
The second part I gleaned from reading over the lawsuit against the devs by one of their early investors. Part of the damages this person is claiming are for all the hours they spent coding/hiring a team of coders to make bots to use in the game. These bots were winning tournaments early on.
The devs were reliant on big investors in the beginning of the game. They needed people willing to put in hundreds of thousands of dollars and buy tons of cards. But what does a person do with those cards? They can only use so many in their own game and there was no rental market or an airdrop that paid you to hold them. The only thing you could do was farm the game with bots.
In fact, the devs themselves ran the first bots I'm sure to create some competition and to farm the game themselves like they do today with the rental market. I'm not sure if they still run the bots. It looks like at some point the servers were subpoenaed for the lawsuit and they "melted" before getting turned in lol.
Finally, bots show growth. When the game had 2000 daily active players in early 2021, I'm sure even then most of them were bots. And when the game ramped to 500k, most of those were bots.
I remember when I was investing heavily that the major thing I was watching was player growth. As long as the daily active users was going up, I had no problem buying in more. I'm sure I'm not the only one. At the time I didn't know as much about the bots as I do today so I thought most of the player growth was real.
Bot growth brings investors.
Next the cutting rewards to bots. I've always had a problem with this. In fact, I think everyone had a problem with this. Even those who've agreed with me about nothing else in the game agreed with me on this. Everyone hated this move. Calling out bronze players while saying its not the bots fault was low. But, if you know how important bots are to your success and you know that bots are a danger to the game if they get out of control, you never risk saying anything about the bots that raises ire and you do whatever you need to do to keep the in check.
I think at the time they made this move their whole house was on fire. They couldn't handle the growth. The servers were crashing. People were pissed off. The support lines were severely backed up. But the biggest problem in the game was that while there was lots of money coming in, way too much of it was going right back out the door to bot accounts that were growing at a compounding 4-5% per day.
At the same time CL was coming and people were expecting land to come out shortly after that. I think they were bogged down, the bots were getting out of control, they were trying to ramp up new devs and they just decided to pull the plug on growth and get their ducks in a row again.
Now CL is out, they have a massive cash infusion, plenty of packs are left, tons of team members are on board and up to speed, most of the validator work is done, land is coming back into focus, lore is more in their control, and prices are at a point where everyone who wants to invest can afford something, and most importantly, the largest bot networks now have the infrastructure to manage their own rentals.
People who rent out a lot of cards probably noticed a few months back when suddenly rental prices that had been in free-fall finally stabilized and all of a sudden, 80% of your cards were being rented by bot accounts that didn't even use the cards.
How important do you think that is to this plan of theirs working? If they'd done thing before bots figured out the rental markets, this would fail as bots would immediately quit and their player base would collapse. They don't want them to quit. They want millions of them.
So now that all that is in place and they have made sure the bots will do the least amount of damage, now they are starting the engines back up.
What about flooding the game at the same time they cut off bots and bronze from growing more accounts? That tanked the game. It hurt everyone's earnings. We are now sitting here with cards going to a penny that a week ago had 50k copies each for sale and over 1 million each sitting dormant in bot accounts waiting to go on sale.
Well, again I think they wanted to shut down the growth show and this did that. But I think they expected to get it all started much sooner than they did and I think they thought giving rabid players access to cheap cards would keep them around a little while and have some of the ones stuck in bronze be incentivized to move up to get those cards.
I refuse to believe the devs didn't know what I knew about the inventory. When the rental market came out and many whales dragged their feet on bringing their cards to market, I really thought that was coordinated. Purely speculation here but I think they talked to these whales about waiting.
What waiting did was spark a frenzy. It sent rental prices up massively and gave them bragging rights on how much money was bring earned in their game. It was media worthy. It brought people in across the world. While most of the growth was bots, I'd bet the real player number probably grew from 1000 players to 100k players and that's because people saw those earnings.
That wouldn't have happened had the whales dumped their inventory on the rental market. It would have smothered it. Prices wouldn't have moved. Everything would have been dirt cheap. The buying frenzies from people like me wouldn't have happened before I was buying for the income and there wound't have been any income. This game had its biggest growth phase ever when cards were artificially scarce, there were no card packs for sale and for part of the time there weren't even any rewards cards.
Devs knew artificial scarcity was going to be needed because there were so many cards and what we saw was the game get 250x more active accounts and not come close to using the inventory up from the drops that'd already happened. It was those growth to card usage numbers that led me to say it would take getting to 5 million accounts to use all the cards that came out before CL.
They knew all that. They have all these stats. They know who's holding what cards and how many are needed to actually run this game. What was so frustrating is they acted like they didn't and kept making it worse.
They came out with so many cards that if they just cut starter cards all together right now, the game would do just fine without even pushing rental prices up more than 30 or 40%. CL wouldn't even need to sell out. And when I saw Matt say they could now give rewards because there were no more starter cards and it would probably take out bots because they have to rent a little bit, I remembered my calculations about how little that would actually do. Even though I thought it was a great idea, to say it's the biggest problem in the game was really dumb to me.
And without account growth, it is dumb. And saying it's going to stop bots is even dumber.
But when you realize the point in this is not at all to stop bots but bring more in and the fact that they are planning on re-sparking the growth they killed off 7 months ago which as we know can grow at a steady 4-5% per day when it gets moving, the starter cards do become the biggest problem in the game.
The reason 2000 accounts turning into 400k accounts needed so little of the card supply was because starter cards were able to be used so only a few accounts that came in were renting and buying. Most of the bot accounts and several of the new bronze accounts were making a go of it with just starters. Remember when things were ramping and you heard the universal advice to every new player who couldn't win? Rent cards.
Without starter cards, another ramp up like the one we had, there would actually be a real card crunch. No longer could you have 5 million players with just the pre chaos Legion cards. With no starter cards even with CL fully sold out and all the cards efficiently in use unlike how they were during the last ramp, 2 million daily active players could cause a severe card shortage.
I don't expect to get to 5% per day growth again, but to get from 400k to 1 million with 5% daily growth, it only takes about 20 days. Then it only takes about 2 weeks more to get to 2 million. Without doing the math, I'd have to imagine that even at 1-2% daily growth (which I know is crazy but we've seen better) we could get to 2 million by the end of 2022. And that's where I think it's likely we are going.
Let's say we track up to 600k by by the beginning of July. They bring in a few guilds who want to play at a high level and suddenly in a few quick bursts CL packs are gone. Just like when untamed suddenly sold out, everyone who fell asleep suddenly comes to. Cards start trucking higher but guess what's coming? The next pack and it's only available via SPS. Scheduled now for August. Let's hope it waits a month and comes out in September so the market gets a little hungry. What's SPS do?
Remember the presale for validators starts next week and as soon as it sells out they move into the tranches even if it happens before they launch. We could be in tranche 2 by that point with licenses at $5000 worth of SPS. But suddenly SPS spikes because of Rift Watchers which lowers the per SPS price of the next tranche of node significantly and they sell out sending SPS even higher and putting tranche 3 in reasonable view i the midst of a frenzy.
There are a lot of cards coming out in that deck but at this point we have over 1 million accounts and even with CL fully out there, cards are scarce and expensive. Rift Watchers could sell out and in a few months when we get to 2 million, we could again be struggling to keep up.
And the thing is, it's not just the number of cards right? it's the cards people want to use.
I stopped playing shortly after CL came out because I played mainly in bronze and silver and it got BORING. I'd face the same teams over and over again. All starter cards from CL and they just ran me over. And I didn't care enough to try to figure out the counters. My alpha legendaries were getting squashed by common CL cards. They are way out of balance and bots knew these combos worked so why play anything else?
Well, let now say that without starter cards, these cards that the bots play start moving up in price and eventually become unavailable. What's going to happen? Players and bots are going to have to pick other strategies. And that will be possible because most players will have to use different strategies so suddenly cards that hasn't been useful for a while start popping up again in the rotations and these strategies are playing each other so they have a chance instead of just getting buried by common CL cards.
There may actually be a time when people will have to play starter cards because there aren't enough real cards to play or because rental prices become so high the player might workout that even losing some of the rewards will pay out slightly better than full payout once they subtract the rental costs.
So now we're at the end of the year, there's two million accounts. Investors have come back in. Account growth moving fast and cards are scarce. Validators are now fully functional and the DAO is loaded with SPS and ready to spend it. What now?
Two things:
Rebellion packs which now make total sense because we need them.
and...
LAND!
Land should be the biggest card sink ever. And it could come at a time when there aren't enough cards to play with. Rebellion is going to have to be a monster of a release.
It will make CL look small just like CL did to Untamed.
And if land launches into a frenzy we are going to see a parabolic rally across all Splinterlands and probably hive assets. And to think this could come at a time when the real economy and crypto market is in the crapper.
I wonder what crypto.com users will think of one token they aren't familiar with head straight up while everything else is red? I wonder how many will check it out? Invest in SPS or come over and get involved int eh game since there's nothing else going on.
OK, but what about the bots?
Bots are a drain and there will be millions of them draining the market of value.
Bots, drain. And the more people come running in with money to invest, the faster the bots are going to proliferate to drain it.
A few things though:
First, the drain takes time. As we've seen, the fomo and excitement can move up a whole lot faster than bots can drain.
Next, when we hit a point where cards become scarce and prices are moving with no end in sight, the bot armies will have to slow down because they literally won't have the right cards to rent.
I'd be willing to bet that most of these bots aren't yet that smart. They have a few teams they can make but the game is about to get a lot more complex and and interesting and that's going to slow the bots down while the game attracts some real players.
Next, even though bots have been draining this game for 7 months and the game has had several other negative catalysts during that time too, cards are still substantially higher prices than before the ramp up started.
Bots work pretty slowly. They will certainly kill the patient with enough time but that isn't instant. As long as they can bring in enough human interest for the bots to grab onto, the game will keep growing.
It's likely that sometime after land comes out, the devs pull the plug again because it all gets to be too much. And we'll see a year of growth dying and bots feasting. But then we'll get the bitcoin halving and our first real taste of the metaverse and all that to look forward to.
So, what am I doing now?
Well, I'm buying. I'm buying those Alpha epic cards. I'm buying more chickens because when everything is rented out, chickens will be king. I've been saying it for a while but I feel it coming on now.
I'm also buying cheap rewards cards, CL cards, and CL packs. I have a bunch of potions I need to use up still and I want some more airdrop points for those legendary summoners. If I were smart I'd be holding those packs but I have zero self control around packs.
I enjoy the ritual of lining up 40-100 packs after the wife has gone to bed, grabbing a beer, putting in my headphones with some Queensryche or Pink Floyd and going through the packs one by one. In fact, its 1am right now and that's exactly what I'm going to do. Im going to pick up 100 CL packs, grab a beer, and see what I can find one pack at a time.
Wish me luck!
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I honestly felt the last few months were the low point and a prime time for people to start getting into splinterlands. I only see prices slowly climbing now with some spike with new features such as new decks, airdrops, land and servers.
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For a nerve to fire, it needs a certain amount of stimulus. If it crosses that threshold it fires and if it doesn't quite get there, nothing happens. Thats how I'm thinking about Splitnerlands right now.
There's going to be an arb window that bots will want to close. Also all current and new bots and players will suddenly have to rent. If that pushes income from owning those rentals above a certain threshold, the nerve will fire and the rally will build on itself.
If not, we get a small bump but not enough to spark that nerve/rally. Validator nodes should be another catalyst to getting that signal strong enough to make it happen.
Right now I know several people who are buying. If you look at those common rewards cards a week ago there were over 50k of many of them available on the market. Today there's 20k. The expensive cards are moving down still but the cheaper cards are finding footing and heading back up. That's how I'd expect a bottom to occur.
It's going to be fun to watch and see what happens. I'm hopeful for fireworks.
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Seems like you are seeing things more like me today brother! Cards are moving up quickly, last week you could get reward cards 400-450 cp per usd, currently as I just checked, only 5 cards in game currently 300 cp per usd or cheaper, and all chaos legion cards are below 200 cp per usd except 4 already.
we should chat in one of the discords we are in about market trends more often!
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I'm seeing it everywhere right now. The low CP cards (which I think you are a huge part of pushing up-I looked at your buys on peakmonsters. You've been busy). But there are plenty of others that are moving too. The low end of the market goes first while the high end is going to get one more drop as people get out of those and jump to the cheap cards and others don't realize what's happening. Someone took up my bid for $24 on a gold skeletal Warrior yesterday. That's an $80 card.
There are several interesting things going on right now but this chart tops the list for me right now
TO me this chart is more about the average price of cards transacted going above $1 and that means a mix of all cards going up in value and mid cards starting to move.
The next one is this save and uptrend continuation. When we spiked like 6x on new signups I figured it would drop back down but what I was looking for is does it drop down like it never happened of just as we get almost back does it curve back up. Again, super early but incredibly bullish start.
To me what we have right now is cheap CP collection but I think the market shifts into usable cards as people need to discover new card combinations and strategies. I love your idea of Djinn Chwala. Very usable and cheap CP. I just picked up a bunch of gold and regular ant miners for cheap. $5 for gold ant miners was a steal and it pushed the floor up. That's a card that works with the summoners people will have. Still buying those damn chickens too. I think Mylor is going to make a strong comeback in bronze too but I have 100 of those already plus 8 gold so I'm done buying those. The cards I'm fighting myself on now are the beta Alrics. The water magic team seems dead right now in lower leagues but its got to make a comeback and $70 beta Alrics is just too cheap since there is no starter magic summoner for water anymore. I wish I had more cash to spend right now. I could easily drop another 5 figures on what I'm seeing out there. Take out some floors and cause some fomo.
I'm writing 3 or 4 posts now. I have one on SPS and dec coming up that I'm curious about your thoughts on. Hopefully I'll get it out soon.
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Today I held back, despite my intense desire to join the buying frenzy, I felt it best to let those who hadnt been acquiring to get them, Ive been accumulating for weeks if not months. Tom I will sell a couple stocks and perhaps buy some more cards, I figure I will act as the follow through. lets get in contact on discord, You can find me in the Splinterlands discord, Tokenomics sub channel, not to busy there so we can find eachother easily. Wow 8 gold mylors, very nice! I was able to max a copy regular, hes def my fav summoner so far. Personally I wouldnt buy alric, I dont even use my bortus that much, kelya has been surprisingly good with the chaos legion cards.
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I don't really think anything is really solved but I do hope the situation is better. As for cards, I just buy cheap reward cards. If I lose because I don't have some alpha or beta cards, then whatever. The bot networks will continue to run and I doubt they will ever stop. Why? If the bots stopped, it means the people in bronze and the lower leagues will have quit. I do hope the situation does get better though.
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Oh the bots will absolutely never stop. SO the question for me is, can Splinterlands survive with 80% of their users being bots? To me the answer is yes as long as more human value is coming in. Bot growth creates FOMO because people only see the numbers. If daily active users are going up and prices are going up, people will come running in just like last year. FOMO is strong, especially when everything else looks terrible.
Will this be permanent? I'm guessing not. There are a lot of problems. But to think we see a rally go into the rest of the year is very possible at this point imo.
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I think it's possible but they are releasing more rewards cards at the end of the season so the supply issue hasn't really been solved and I am wondering whether or not land will put those cards to work.
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Wow I have never seen an analysis of Splinterlands that long, it's so impressive. And not one spelling mistake. I have read every word of it and it's so detailed. I shall take some of the information onboard and buy more cards !
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Get potential votes from @ pgm-curator by paying in PGM, here is a guide
I'm a bot, if you want a hand ask @ zottone444
lolztoken.com
A hardened criminal.
Credit: marshmellowman
@imno, I sent you an $LOLZ on behalf of @olympicdragon
Use the !LOL or !LOLZ command to share a joke and an $LOLZ.
Delegate Hive Tokens to Farm $LOLZ and earn 110% Rewards. Learn more.
(1/2)
Thanks for reading it and for the kind words. There're some great cards out there for cheap right now. With any luck they won't be cheap for long.
!PIZZA
!LOLZ
!PGM
!WINE
BUY AND STAKE THE PGM TO SEND A LOT OF TOKENS!
The tokens that the command sends are: 0.1 PGM-0.1 LVL-2.5 BUDS-0.01 MOTA-0.05 DEC-15 SBT-1 STARBITS-0.00000001 BTC (SWWAP.BTC)
Discord
Support the curation account @ pgm-curator with a delegation 10 HP - 50 HP - 100 HP - 500 HP - 1000 HP
Get potential votes from @ pgm-curator by paying in PGM, here is a guide
I'm a bot, if you want a hand ask @ zottone444
Congratulations, @imno You Successfully Shared 0.200 WINEX With @olympicdragon.
You Earned 0.200 WINEX As Curation Reward.
You Utilized 2/3 Successful Calls.
Contact Us : WINEX Token Discord Channel
WINEX Current Market Price : 0.489
Swap Your Hive <=> Swap.Hive With Industry Lowest Fee (0.1%) : Click This Link
Read Latest Updates Or Contact Us
lolztoken.com
High prices.
Credit: reddit
@olympicdragon, I sent you an $LOLZ on behalf of @imno
Use the !LOL or !LOLZ command to share a joke and an $LOLZ.
Delegate Hive Tokens to Farm $LOLZ and earn 110% Rewards. Learn more.
(4/10)
PIZZA Holders sent $PIZZA tips in this post's comments:
imno tipped olympicdragon (x1)
olympicdragon tipped imno (x1)
@forsakensushi(1/10) tipped @imno (x2)
You can now send $PIZZA tips in Discord via tip.cc!
The rewards earned on this comment will go directly to the person sharing the post on Twitter as long as they are registered with @poshtoken. Sign up at https://hiveposh.com.
Congratulations @imno! You have completed the following achievement on the Hive blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s):
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