Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer in the 19th century, developed the Benner Cycle, a predictive model for market fluctuations based on his observations of commodity prices and economic patterns. After losing his wealth in the Panic of 1873, Benner published his findings in 1875 in Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices. His model, rooted in agricultural commodity cycles (notably pig iron, corn, and hogs), has been noted for its historical alignment with major economic events, such as the Great Depression, World War II, the Dot-Com Bubble, and the 2008 Financial Crisis, though its accuracy has waned in modern times due to the complexity of global markets and interventions like monetary policy. Below, I’ll outline the Benner Cycle’s structure, apply it to project market cycles from 2020 to 2075, and provide a speculative analysis based on the provided patterns, while critically assessing its limitations.
Overview of the Benner Cycle The Benner Cycle is based on three repeating sequences that categorize economic conditions into periods of panic, prosperity, and hard times (recessions or commodity price lows):
Panic Years (Line A): These are periods of market crashes or financial crises, occurring in a 16-18-20-year cycle, repeating every 54 years (16 + 18 + 20 = 54). These years are marked by irrational market behavior, leading to sharp price movements. Good Times (Line B): These are prosperous years with high prices, ideal for selling assets. They follow an 8-9-10-year cycle, indicating peaks in market performance. Hard Times (Line C): These are periods of low prices and economic contraction, ideal for buying assets. They align with commodity price lows in an 8-9-10-year cycle or recessions in a 5-6-7-year cycle. Benner’s cycles were originally based on agricultural and industrial commodity prices (e.g., 11-year cycles for corn and hog prices with peaks every 5-6 years, 27-year cycles for pig iron with lows every 11-9-7 years and peaks every 8-9-10 years). He also suggested a connection to natural phenomena, like solar cycles, influencing crop yields and thus prices. While his model was remarkably prescient for its time, its predictive power is debated due to modern market complexities, including central bank interventions and global economic factors not present in the 19th century.
Historical Context and Accuracy Benner’s cycles accurately aligned with several major events:
Great Depression (1929-1941): Predicted as a panic period. Oil Crisis (1973): Aligned with a forecasted downturn. Dot-Com Bubble (1995-2002): Captured the 1999-2000 peak and crash. Financial Crisis (2007-2008): Aligned with a prosperity peak in 2007, followed by a crash. However, inaccuracies exist:
The 1965 and 1999 predictions were off; 1999 was a market peak, not a crash. The 2019 predicted recession occurred in 2020 due to COVID-19, slightly misaligned. Modern interventions (e.g., quantitative easing post-2008) disrupt free-market cycles, reducing the model’s reliability. Applying the Benner Cycle: 2020–2075 Using the provided patterns (16-18-20-year panic cycle, 8-9-10-year prosperity and commodity low cycles, and 5-6-7-year recession cycle), I’ll project market cycles from 2020 to 2075. The cycles are speculative, as the Benner Cycle is a guide, not a precise predictor, and modern markets are influenced by factors Benner couldn’t foresee (e.g., monetary policy, geopolitical events, technological disruptions). I’ll assume the cycles continue as described, aligning with recent interpretations of the chart for 2020–2023 and extending forward.
- Panic Years (16-18-20-Year Cycle) Panic years occur every 16, 18, and 20 years, repeating every 54 years. Recent panic years cited include 1999 (Dot-Com Bubble, though slightly off) and 2019 (COVID-19 crash in 2020). Using 2019 as the last panic year:
Next Panic Years: 2019 + 16 = 2035 (panic/crash) 2035 + 18 = 2053 (panic/crash) 2053 + 20 = 2073 (panic/crash) Cycle Reset: After 2073, the cycle restarts with a 16-year gap, leading to 2073 + 16 = 2089 (beyond the requested period). Speculation: Expect major market downturns or financial crises around 2035, 2053, and 2073, potentially triggered by overvalued markets, geopolitical shocks, or systemic financial issues (e.g., debt crises or tech bubble bursts). These years would be marked by panic selling and sharp declines in asset prices.
- Good Times (Prosperity, 8-9-10-Year Cycle) Prosperity years, ideal for selling, occur every 8, 9, and 10 years. Historical peaks include 2007 and 2019, with 2026 often cited as the next peak. Assuming 2026 as a prosperity peak:
Next Prosperity Peaks: 2026 + 8 = 2034 2034 + 9 = 2043 2043 + 10 = 2053 2053 + 8 = 2061 2061 + 9 = 2070 2070 + 10 = 2080 (beyond the period) Speculation: Markets are likely to see strong growth and high asset prices in 2026, 2034, 2043, 2061, and 2070. These years could coincide with economic booms, technological advancements (e.g., AI, biotech), or speculative bubbles in assets like equities or cryptocurrencies. Investors should consider selling or rebalancing portfolios during these peaks to lock in gains before potential corrections.
- Hard Times (Commodity Lows/Recessions, 8-9-10-Year or 5-6-7-Year Cycle) Hard times, ideal for buying, are periods of low prices or recessions. The article mentions commodity price lows in an 8-9-10-year cycle and recessions in a 5-6-7-year cycle. Recent sources suggest 2023 was a “hard time” for buying, aligning with market volatility and economic uncertainty. Using the 8-9-10-year cycle for commodity lows and aligning with 2023:
Commodity Price Lows/Hard Times: 2023 + 8 = 2031 2031 + 9 = 2040 2040 + 10 = 2050 2050 + 8 = 2058 2058 + 9 = 2067 2067 + 10 = 2077 (beyond the period) For recessions (5-6-7-year cycle), assuming a recession in 2020 (COVID-19):
Recession Years: 2020 + 5 = 2025 2025 + 6 = 2031 2031 + 7 = 2038 2038 + 5 = 2043 2043 + 6 = 2049 2049 + 7 = 2056 2056 + 5 = 2061 2061 + 6 = 2067 2067 + 7 = 2074 Speculation: Hard times in 2031, 2040, 2050, 2058, and 2067 will likely see low asset prices, economic slowdowns, or commodity price troughs, offering opportunities to buy undervalued assets. Recession years (2025, 2031, 2038, 2043, 2049, 2056, 2061, 2067, 2074) may involve economic contractions, higher unemployment, or market corrections, ideal for long-term investors to accumulate assets like stocks, real estate, or commodities.
Consolidated Market Cycle Projection (2020–2075) Combining the cycles, here’s a speculative timeline:
2023: Hard time (buying opportunity, aligned with 2023 volatility). 2025: Potential recession (5-6-7-year cycle), suggesting caution and accumulation of assets. 2026: Prosperity peak (sell opportunity, high prices expected). 2031: Hard time/recession (buying opportunity, low prices or economic slowdown). 2034: Prosperity peak (sell opportunity, market highs). 2035: Panic year (major crash or crisis, avoid heavy exposure). 2038: Recession (buying opportunity, economic contraction). 2040: Hard time (buying opportunity, commodity price lows). 2043: Prosperity peak/recession (mixed signals; sell at peak, buy during dip). 2049: Recession (buying opportunity). 2050: Hard time (buying opportunity, low prices). 2053: Panic year/prosperity peak (complex year; potential crash after a peak). 2056: Recession (buying opportunity). 2058: Hard time (buying opportunity). 2061: Prosperity peak/recession (sell at peak, buy during dip). 2067: Hard time/recession (buying opportunity). 2070: Prosperity peak (sell opportunity). 2073: Panic year (major crash or crisis). 2074: Recession (buying opportunity). Note: Years where cycles overlap (e.g., 2043, 2053, 2061, 2067) may see heightened volatility, with rapid transitions between peaks and troughs. Investors should monitor market conditions closely in these periods.
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