Well the real estate market is 29%. If Evergrande falls hard, it will crash prices and affect supply lines so the impact on their economy will be quite large. Even if it does go down, they have to at least minimize the damage.
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Hard it will fall, about that there is no doubt. The question is, how far do the ripple effects go? How will it effect people 12 time zones away? PRC and CCP will minimize the damage, but it will still be mind-blowing in magnitude.
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It will affect everyone since China is linked to markets all around the world. Personally I think the prices of commodities will suffer and it will cascade to other industries.
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The price drops in commodities would be even worse if demand for them simply disappears. If supply chain woes continue, it will get ugly with or without an Evergrande bankruptcy.
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