Time for possibly an unpopular opinion/fearless prediction/foolish prognostication. Definitely, absolutely not financial advice.
STEEM price will hold up quite well in the days after the fork.
Why?
- Justin Sun and some allies are looking for a win. He won't get HIVE airdrop for Steemit stake, but he will get some from exchange funds - at least 3+ million, plus however much he has put in during this current pump.
- He has plenty of money to support STEEM price and buy more as future Hivers dump STEEM.
- He will see a solid STEEM price as a marketing tool/p.r. win.
- His ego won't allow for HIVE to be worth more than STEEM.
Thus massive buy support for STEEM
HIVE price will also do well.
Why?
- Lots of pissed of former Steemians want to dump it as soon as HIVE fork happens. Big sell STEEM, buy HIVE pressure.
- I don't think Sun will sell his liquid HIVE from exchanges. Wouldn't be surprised if he staked it to play with HIVE governance for a bit - Witness vote etc.
- Lots of community want HIVE to work - wont be sellers.
- OG witnesses and Community leaders have put a lot into getting HIVE running - will be sellers of STEEM and buyers of HIVE with a point to prove.
Win/Win right?
Short term maybe, long term who knows.
What could go wrong with this theory?
If I am wrong and Sun does Dump HIVE asap, then this theory won't play out.
Either way, I see STEEM holding up ok in the short term.
Please don't take this as financial advice - I'm just guessing, and just putting this on the blockchain so I can either say "I told you so" or "shit, I got that wrong" in a few days time.
Cheers,
JK.
Posted via Steemleo
If Sun dumps his HIVEs, it will be very good, on the long view. First, the price will drop but will recover as the blockchain goes stronger. Second, we will not fear Sun trying to dominate HIVE, because he sold all his HIVEs. It is a win-win idea for us.
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I agree, and that would be my preference. But I just get a feeling that there are some other games being played here. Not saying the price won't drop, just that I don't think it will totally dump.
Well, all anyone can do is guess! This seems like as good a theory as any. 😁
It's going to be interesting times.
It certainly is a bold prediction. I tend to think the selling pressure on STEEM will reflect the run up. Plus there is a lot of STEEM in liquid for that will hit the market.
But we will have to see what happens.
Posted via Steemleo
Can't wait to see what happens. I just think there are people on both sides with the means and motive to heavily defend their preferred tokens price. May not last, but to begin with, there is a P.R. war to be won, and a big dump doesn't help that cause.
Time will tell.