As many of you know, I was at the Breathe! convention in Vegas the past week. LEO had a section in the main Hive booth and we talked to tons of awesome people about Web3, what we are building and how it all works on the Hive blockchain.
While I was there, I chatted with Aggy (Aggroed of Splinterlands). We were talking about the crypto cycles and one thing he mentioned to me is that he believed that on September 11th, we saw the end of the bear market.
What exactly happened that day? Well, we saw a quick tumble in the Bitcoin price. A lot of people got shaken out. Tons of margin got liquidated.
Shakeouts often precede large run-ups. Why is that? It can be a lot of different factors. Often times, it is some form of market manipulation. Some big stakeholders see that people are defending a certain price / have margin at that level and in order to "shake them out" they tank the price and squeeze those positions.
Whether or not that happened on September 11th, we saw a lot of liquidations and we saw the price quickly bounce off that $25k support and return to $26k. Now we are steadily climbing as we retook $27k yesterday.
Price Action
I am not technical analyst. In fact, I barely believe in TA at all. That being said, I enjoy hearing perspectives and seeing what people have to say.
I love the idea of Bitcoin's bear market being over. That would pave the way for a lot of things to recover. Especially overall market sentiment.
For projects like Splinterlands, LEO, Thorchain and others - risk-off environments are super dangerous.
How many thousands of crypto projects did not survive the crypto winter we've faced for the past 700 days?
There are countless of them. You won't even hear about them. Most faded off into the nothingness without a peep.
Obviously, others made a bigger splash as they died.
I am confident that any projects that survived this crypto winter will come out of the bear so strong.
Look to the tech they built. The fundamental progress they made. The fact that they survived is a great indicator on its own... but if they managed to evolve and find new ways to build even better, than that is a much better story.
Again, I'm not one for TA but I do like to loosely keep an eye on it. Perhaps it's like a broken compass. Sometimes it's right and sometimes its wrong. If you're wandering in the desert and have not a clue where you are headed, it can be a nice comfort to have something to guide you. No matter how roughly it may be.
Fundamentals
Fundamentally, we're seeing some great things happening. Bitcoin is being sucked away from exchanges like never before. The net outflows of CEX's is utterly ridiculous.
This can also mean a bunch of different things. The one I am curious about is if this is the result of a handful of large players - like Blackrock - who are soaking up liquid BTCs in anticipation for their ETFs to launch.
The whole ETF narrative is taking shape. We've also got the Bitcoin halvening in March 2024.
As this continues to take shape, I think we'll see the excitement build. Aren't we already seeing the early signs of the excitement building?
Gensler is losing steam in washington. ETFs are on the horizon. The halvening cycle is about to start up again after 4 years of lying in wait...
Do you own enough long-crypto exposure (BTC, ETH, HIVE, RUNE, LEO)?
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TA is literally hocus pocus BS lol.
For me the best method is... if the line goes up, sell. If the line goes down, buy.
That's literally it. The rest is speculation based on formulas attempting to control human emotion with numbers XD
You do realize that the biggest and richest organizations in the world use TA and the automated collation of data to make billions of dollars a year, right?
Google: "Aladdin finance"
That's different though, that's like the single most powerful technology backed by supercomputers and endless immense software via superfast fibre optic cables and advanced AI yadda yadda, and basically shapes the outcome of the market itself.
I'm really just referring to people looking at bollinger bands and being like 'yeah the support might break and then we get a cup shape implying a good sell off but this is not financial advice'
I believe this market will experience more of consolidation before an upward rally. This is not a financial advice.
Definitely possible!
Thats how I see it, not saying we going to 50k in a single candle but ppl were ultra bearish lately, to be honest there doesnt have to be an event like everyone is expecting the ETF, its just buyers following whales who sustain the price, I have been DCA for the past three months and will continue to do so probably until the 40k range, but thats just me 🤑
Between the two analyses, I like the technical analysis better. I have taken a couple of courses and I like it, perhaps because of the branch I have studied and worked in as a profession. So I like to pay attention to these analyses. I have read some of them and they are interesting, although we know that this has a life of its own. The fundamental analysis that you also mention is relevant, in view of the fact that the world economic condition also has some impact on the price. I am particularly looking forward to the end of this winter, although I am not in a hurry. If it does so slowly but surely, that's fine by me. Greetings @khaleelkazi
I am always a long term investors who belive in staying invested...and when I look at my portfolio...I found each of the name mentioned in the list....and that really boosted my confidence to the next level.
Moving upward from the 25k resistance limit is a good sign and we hope to see the cycle continue to move upward. There is alwsys ripples in crypto market with external news and some of the ongoing positive things made me to belive that the brighter days are ahead...
Very true. Every project that has made it through the bears is yet to shock us. For retail investors that have made it this farQuitting and timing the market will be the worst thing to do. Positioning one’s portfolio and staying consistent until change comes green change comes is the goal.
No doubt there are so many negative news and events in the market in last 2 years but I hope soon FUD will end with some thing like Bitcoin etf approvel and we will enter into a bull market
I always thought that the bear market ends with the lowest low? If so, it ended in 2022 :)
only in retrospect
the overall vibe and emotions are still very much rooted in bear market FUD
then once people forget what it was like to actually live the moment they look back and call the FTX collapse the end of the bear. Silly humans.
Yeah I agree that we are still in bear market sentiment. But the charts speak quite clearly
A lot of the timelines add up for this being the case.
Mentioned it a week ago actually.
Definitely ready to get out of September and into the more promising months.
My question is where will the liquidity come from? QE is finished for now. Inflation is still high. Stocks could take another hit and drag crypto down with it. Regulators are circling the crypto space like buzzards at a hog killing.
There is no doubt that BTC and crypto will have another bull market but I'm guessing it is still a ways away. Maybe we will get a mini halvening pump a few months prior to the big event, but then it's back to scheduled programming.
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I do not want to be caught in the trap. For me, we're still hard in the bear run.
If it happens, it happens. I will just wait it out like I have been since bitcoin tok a 50%+ nose dive.
As far as etf's, I think companies should just let the people have their currency while corporations stick to theirs.
I've got some of those 5 mentioned.
Except one - RUNE.