Here are my thoughts on BTC market & Not a Financial Advice.
A lot of people are mentioning aroumd a bearish flag pattern on daily & 4H chart. It seems to be like that but i'm not fully convinced that it has all the characteristics of a flag. So i won't trade a flag until a breakout is confirmed with high volume.
So market has been going sideways for almost a year. Starting from last year January we were at 42k range before we hit a new ATH. Then we went to a 3-6 month mini bear and putting a new ATH at 69k. We spent a decent amount of time around 40-45k range before falling back to 32k flash crash and recovering suddenly around 35k mark.
Currently we are being challenged by 38-39k mark and we have received multiple rejections in last few days. Before we call a prediction whether price is going up or down, let's understand what does indicators are saying.
We are near the wedge top line of daily resistance.
Interestingly we are above the RSI daily resistance, but yo maintain that we need a daily close above 38k range. I expect we will test the RSI support again before moving to further sideways action for a few days or evem weeks.
20 Day MA or 21 Day EMA both are around 39.8k mark which is immediate resistance to break. It has been falling speedily because of downward action but we have seen 6 green candles in last 7 days which is something OK.
VPVR ratio indicates we have a full volume support at 33k level which caused a quick bounce last week.
MACD on 3D time frame looks decent and is going to cross if we get another green week. On Daily MACD is having sideways movement with multiple crosses we we are still in need to big green candles to get it started.
Trading volume was good in start of this week and has declined a bit in last 2 days which is indicating a week trend. But i hope volume will recover if we get a 39k close and RSI support retest.
So to me market seems healthy in pre-bullish terms. Monthly RSI is already near bottoms. If you are a long holder (atleast 1-2 year) then this is the right opportunity to get in market. You will make good gains. Remember when market TOPs out, it doesn't matter that you bought at 40k or 30k, you will be in profit and would enjoy gains. We haven't seen a big liquidition event yet which confirms bottoms and trend reversal on long trends. So this analysis is just a pre-picture of what bullish sentiments we may see in next few months.
Historically FEB has been positive 7 times in last 9 years and it's never happened that both January & February ended up in red. Of course past performances doesn't guarantee future results. This is just for statistical purposes. My Feb target is to get above the 20D MA or 21D EMA and go sideways to break this wedge.
I'd recommend DCA (Dollar Cost Average) in the market and buy BTC, ETH regularly with small amounts but consistently because you never know what the bottom is till it is gone.
If bearish flag plays out, it would still be a good buy opportunity and your longterm plans won't be affected by this dump. Now it's time to decide whether you are in for a few days scalping or bigger gains.
Feel free to share your thoughts and feedback. Remember if you lose the vision, just zoom out the chart.
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