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RE: Follow the whales; secret to investing

in LeoFinance13 days ago

Inflation works the same was as you describe information distribution:

  1. Central bank creates money from nothing and distributes it to its immediate contacts. Since prices had not yet changed, people getting this newly created money benefit from it in every way.
  2. These contacts begin to spend this money on whatever they want, including other income-producing assets and luxury goods. Prices had not changed yet.
  3. Over time, this money flows into the rest of "the economy" where everyone else lives. This is where prices begin to increase, since more money is now in circulation. It is at this point where it takes more money to buy 1 unit of something. More money for the same amount of goods-- the classic definition of inflation.
  4. Step 3 repeats until it reaches us. By the time the recently created central bank money reaches us, prices had already risen. We got no benefit in the way the central bank's immediate contacts got theirs.

By the time we receive information-- "my taxi driver gave me this stock tip"-- it's already too late for us.

Unlike with central bank money, information can be accessed by anyone if we know where to look for it (and I'm not even considering the situation of insider trading). This is why it makes sense to see what the whales are doing, or people known for being ahead of the curve (even if they benefit from direct insider trading).