Garden State Gold & Coin
I'm Buying Silver...Still!
Bitcoin is surging past $70k, Gold is sitting at an all-time high of about $2200 per ounce and I’m buying silver? Come on man, chase the action. Everyone’s doing it! Well I wouldn’t be The Anarchist Investor if I was going along with the crowd. So this weekend, I bought more silver.
Investors vs Gamblers
FOMO abounds right now. Lots of folks are chasing action in Crypto, Gold, and AI stocks. There are promises of riches beyond their comprehension. One YouTube title I saw today was, “Bitcoin is Parabolic, Make Millions”. In 20 years of investing in a multitude of markets, I know when someone is making statements like that, it’s time to take profit…not buy more. Gamblers chase the action. Investors use time to make money.
The irony of the call to action to “Make Millions” right now is that the millions were made when everyone was sleeping on Bitcoin, Gold, AI stocks, etc. The millions were made if you were stacking Bitcoin all along when it was at $40k. The millions were made if you were stacking Gold at $1700 per ounce. When everyone is piling into something, the real money is made where everyone currently isn’t. That’s why I’m stacking silver and looking to take profit on the Gold and Bitcoin I’ve already accumulated when the hoopla was much less.
Don’t Miss Your Chance At Free Silver!!! 🥈🥈🥈🥈
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Garden State Gold & Coin
Pro tip: call around to coin shops and dealers to see what their pricing is. The online premiums were about $2.50 per ounce for larger orders. I was looking to pickup some silver rounds and some of the premiums were quite high at the local shops too. One shop told me the best bet was to buy 10 ounce gold bars and quoted me $28 per ounce. That would’ve been an approximate $3.50 premium from Friday’s closing price.
Garden State Gold & Coin - Boonton, NJ
When I called Matt at Garden State Gold & Coin, he offered me quite the deal. I knew I was done calling around at that point. The shop is quaint and nicely put together. I brought the family with me so we all piled in and I had a momentary heart attack when my youngest bumped into a vertical, glass display case in the front window. After that crisis was averted, I was able to introduce myself to Matt and get down to business. He had a few eagles but the deal he offered me was for these:
2017 Canadian Devil’s Brigade 1/2 ounce silver coins
The tubes of these that he had are in pristine condition. They commemorate the Canadian special forces brigade that fought during World War II. I’m an anti-war guy but history is history and this was an incredible deal. I won’t divulge exactly what I paid for them but I can assure you they were a much better price than $3.50 over spot per ounce. I am very happy with this purchase and I’ll probably hold on to these for a long time. Matt specifically instructed me to “sell these last”.
Garden State Gold & Coin is in the middle of Boonton, NJ which is a thriving community. Much of Morris County has become built up and expensive and Boonton is reaping the rewards of people and businesses looking for a slightly lower cost home in which to setup. In fact, there are several really nice coffee and nick nack shops along the main drag. Matt recommended one a couple store fronts away.
Java Smugglers
Java Smugglers Cafe and Health Bar - Boonton, NJ
Java Smugglers Cafe and Health Bar has a cool vibe. Their coffee is very high quality and the interior of the shop has an awesome personality. The coffee itself is either stored or finished in bourbon barrels. When you drink it, you feel like you’re having a boozy drink without any of the negative effects. My wife and I shared a mocha that was incredible. The price of the coffee was also very competitive compared to other boutique cafe’s and Starbucks. I can’t recommend this place enough. I’m certain visiting Java Smugglers after trips to Garden State Gold & Coin will be a regular outing for us.
Silver
Silver right now is in a trading range between $20.50 and $26.50. It’s a huge consolidation dating back to the end of 2022. There’s no guarantee it’s going to brake above $26.40 and resume rallying. However, as addressed in prior articles, I feel like we’re headed towards a 5-10 year period of economic malaise in the US. This will see elevated inflation along with sluggish economic growth. This meets the textbook definition of stagflation. Under that scenario, commodities and specifically precious metals do exceptionally well. The dollar and other risk assets that won’t be able to retain their pricing power will suffer. Boring old silver may become one of the darlings of the investment world again.
Silver Weekly Price Chart
PS - after the Great Financial Crisis, Gold was the first precious metal to rally. But in the two years after that, Silver kicked its’ butt. True story!
Conclusion
The money is made before the rally when you’re investing in things that the masses aren’t looking at right now. When the excitement comes, it gives you an easy way to realize your profit and start stacking the current thing that is unloved.
And if you’re ever in the Morris County, NJ area, hit up Garden State Gold & Coin and Java Smugglers!
Crypto Backed by Gold & Silver
This is an attempt to get crypto stans and gold & silver bugs to join forces for the good of everyone!
For crypto evangelists, gold and silver are too cumbersome to lug around to pay for things and too difficult to divide to make smaller purchases. To the average gold & silver stacker, crypto is magical internet money that has no value and nothing material to back it up or convert it into. Well it’s time to put down our differences and reach the promised land together. Strong, secure money for all that is also a currency and can be used as both a store of value and a way to transact.
I wanted to write an article about the differences between currency and money but that has been done and it doesn’t make for a compelling title. It also would’ve been a better bedtime or pre-nap story than anything. I will cover the basics of this difference but my end goal here is to introduce what I think may become nirvana in the monetary markets.
Money vs. Currency
Are you familiar with the concept that a square is a rectangle but a rectangle is not a square? If not, google it. I didn’t do well in geometry in school. However, the analogy holds with these two entitled concepts. Money is a store of value. Currency is a form of money that is used to transact business. Money can be currency. Currency can not be money.
In short, money is the system of value that makes transacting business between individuals possible. It also is a store of the collective wealth of the population that uses that system. Currency is the physical notes, bills, coins, etc that are used to facilitate the transfers or transactions of value between the members within that system. And also between monetary systems. Interestingly enough, the US Dollar is a currency (not money) that facilitates global trade as a reserve currency but mostly through the Euro-Dollar system. More on that concept over at Eurodollar University.
The way I think of money is as a mathematical value. Currency is the physical representation of that value. The two are interchangeable but the only way to increase wealth is to create/find more money (ie - value). Creating more currency simply makes it worth less compared to the total value of money.
Money can be currency like in the case of Gold and Silver. Gold and Silver coins have been utilized for thousands of years as both a store of value and a means of transacting.
Don’t Miss Your Chance At Free Silver!!! 🥈🥈🥈🥈
I’m giving away pure silver to up to 4 free subscribers on April 1, 2024
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Subscribe for free here: anarchistinvestor.substack.com
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Is Bitcoin Money or Currency?
In short, yes. Bitcoin is a monetary system that is currently growing. More broadly, Crypto currencies are a monetary system that is growing. Bitcoin being the most prominent of these. It’s part of the reason I don’t think anyone should have all of their net worth stored in Bitcoin. It’s entirely possible that crypto wins as the predominant monetary system in the US or globally but Bitcoin doesn’t end up being the predominant coin within that system.
Is Bitcoin currency? It can be used to transact. How easily it is transacted has been a point of contention. Originally, the transactions in small volumes were quick and low cost. As the Bitcoin network has scaled up, those transactions have become much higher in volume and less efficient in my opinion. It’s the biggest argument evangelists of other crypto’s have against Bitcoin being the standard of money. It meets most of the requirements of a currency with that notable efficiency issue being a ‘to be determined’.
Both crypto currency and hard money advocates have been against fiat currencies. They both see the harm that can be caused via reckless printing of currency without any tie to actual increases in overall wealth within the monetary system. It devalues the currency and effectively steals from the folks that have most of their wealth held in that currency to the benefit of the folks that have most of their wealth held in other assets within that system. What if they joined forces?
Gold & Silver Crypto
In my mind, this is a match made in Heaven. A hard money system backed by physical resources that have scarcity/rarity while harnessing the transactability and privacy of digital payments. A world where your gold and silver stack has an associated crypto coin/token you can then use to purchase goods and services but retains your ability to directly exchange that coin/token for the physical asset if you so choose.
Here’s the catch. Crypto is based on disintermediation. It creates efficiency by cutting out middle men that were incorporated into the currency system to maintain trust that the transactions were valid and currency wasn’t being double spent. A gold or silver backed crypto would require that the physical assets be held by a custodian and audited regularly. This isn’t an insurmountable hurdle as I can see a day when gold and silver custodians are decentralized throughout the world. The crypto itself could be rewarded to those custodians based on their share of the ‘maintenance’ of the asset base. As of right now however, the offerings on the market still appear to utilize at least one or a small network of custodians to maintain the physical assets.
I will be exploring this more in depth in the future. The first pair of crypto’s and provider I am looking at is Kinesis. KAU and KAG are their gold and silver backed currencies. They also offer cold storage wallets and even debit cards with instant fiat currency transactions internationally. More to come on this.
Conclusion
I can see a world where hard money backed crypto currencies are the standard for both domestic and international trade. We just need to wrangle some cats to get there!
Good Debt vs. Bad Debt
Knowing the difference is crucial!
Debt is one of the most fundamentally misunderstood financial concepts in the Western world. Which is ironic because most western economies are built on debt. The key to understanding debt is whether or not the debt is helping you or hurting you.
I’m channeling my inner Robert Kiyosaki today. If anyone is unfamiliar with Robert, he is the author of an incredible personal finance book entitled Rich Dad, Poor Dad. If you haven’t read it, I HIGHLY suggest you do so. Beware that he does sell real estate investment courses and I am neither a paid spokesman nor advocating whether or not you should invest in those courses.
What is Debt?
As per the graphic, debt is money you owe to someone else. It’s money that isn’t yours that has been lent to you for a purpose. That money is owed back to the lender typically with some amount of interest also due for the opportunity to use that money. Types of debts are mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, student loans, business loans, etc.
The key to understanding debt has to do with the concept of return on capital. Simply put, Return on Capital is the investment return you make off of your assets and your debts. I part ways slightly with Robert here because he focuses mostly on cash flows because you can use real estate investment and beneficial tax laws to increase your returns but I’m not going down that rabbit hole just yet.
You ideally want your investments and debts to add up to a positive percentage return so that your money grows. The problem is that most folks have debts that hurt that return, not help. Good debts can grow your return. Bad obviously then diminish it.
If Debt Can Be Bad, Why Use It?
Sure, you can invest in everything with cash. However, your returns are limited to just what your cash can generate. As stated earlier, western cultures incentivize using debt. That debt can be used improperly which results in a form of economic enslavement. But to the select few that understand how to use debt productively, the returns on their capital are dramatically higher.
Don’t Miss Your Chance At Free Silver!!! 🥈🥈🥈🥈
I’m giving away pure silver to up to 4 free subscribers on April 1, 2024
💌 Get The Anarchist Investor automatically delivered to your inbox and get notified whenever a new post drops for free!
Subscribe for free here: anarchistinvestor.substack.com
Or better yet…Become a paid subscriber to get access to:
📚 Access to the full Anarchist Investor Archive
💰 My weekly portfolio update newsletter detailing allocations and performance
🎁 Incredible paid subscriber-only giveaways and promotions
What is Good Debt?
In short, good debt is any amount that you borrow that can then be used to purchase or invest in an asset that has a positive return after you factor in interest and inflation. For instance (and in overly simplified terms), a loan to purchase a rental property at 6% interest is a good debt if your rents or sale price from flipping give you a return of 10% even if inflation is 2-3%. Outside of additional tax benefits, simple math tells you that the return on this debt is positive. In addition, the debt has given you the ability to achieve an investment return that might have been much less or not available at all had you used just your own cash to purchase that investment.
Is your personal mortgage good debt? In short, no. Many financial planners will say it is but the only return you garner is in the future. You’re better off finding a living situation that pays for itself in the present in addition to the opportunity to sell for a profit in the future. The main reason is opportunity cost. What you pay into your mortgage gets stuck in the equity in your home and can’t be used to invest elsewhere that may generate an immediate return or regular cash flow. If you own a home outright and can unlock the equity via a line of credit or loan to invest elsewhere, this can be a potential good debt.
Examples of Good Debt:
Mortgage on your primary residence if you can rent out a piece of it to offset or negate the loan payment (ie - multi-family, apartment building, etc)
Mortgage/loan on a rental property
Business loan
What is a Bad Debt?
By process of elimination, bad debt costs you money without giving you back a return. This can include a loan for an investment that doesn’t return enough to cover the interest rate plus inflation. Bad debt is most often associated with consuming what you don’t have the means to consume. And it’s often the result of impulsive purchasing and mistaking wants for needs.
Examples of Bad Debt:
Mortgage on your primary home (absent some kind of cash flow or rental income)
Credit Cards
Auto loan (if you’re not using the car for business or renting it out)
Student loans (this one’s controversial but it doesn’t fit the definition of good debt)
Payday loans
Debt Consolidation Loans
Importance of Getting Out of Bad Debts
There are a multitude of reasons why the first two things you should do to right your financial ship is build a safety fund of cash and get out of bad debts. The first of which is because of potential emergencies. Not having an emergency fund can make the pile of bad debt get bigger. The latter is so you stop losing wealth and start building it. Bad debt siphons money from you to others that understand this debt lesson. If your boat has a leak, you have to plug it. Bailing the water out alone will only delay the inevitable.
I am presently at the end of my bad debt journey. A few years ago, my wife and I went through a debt restructuring. These were mostly credit cards and personal loans with a large student loan thrown in. A law firm that negotiated on our behalf helped to drop the overall amounts due and to close the accounts without major strikes against our credit. I currently have two student loans remaining. Soon, that number should be down to one and it’s the loan I have continued making timely payments on to help my credit score. Initiating this process has taken a huge weight off of my shoulders and allowed me to focus on building for the future. And that future is bright! I wish the same for you if you are struggling with bad debt.
Is There More Gold Than Silver Circulating?
Could it be that Silver is rarer than Gold?
Normally I wouldn’t even have thought about this until Silver Seeker posted a video about the Market Cap of Bitcoin overtaking the market cap of Silver. He then laid out how the market cap of silver is greatly over-inflated. But that then led me to one question, is it possible the Silver in circulation is rarer than gold?
What is a Market Cap?
It stands for Market Capitalization. I have covered this briefly in prior posts about Nvidia, Bitcoin, Gold, etc. If you take the current price of something and multiply it by the total amount of it, you get the total market capitalization. It’s a number that gives you some sense of the full value of something if you were able to sell all of it at today’s price. Turns out that this is just a made up idea that gives a false sense of value because selling all of something causes the price to collapse.
There has been a lot of importance placed on the Market Cap of things with the current rise in the price of Bitcoin. Recently, the market cap overtook that of Silver making it one of the 7 “Most Valuable” investments in the world. However, Silver Seeker properly noticed that the market cap of silver is grossly overstated. You can read about the basis for this calculationt and watch the video here:
90% of All Silver Mined is in landfills.) - JM Bullion
Don’t Miss Your Chance At Free Silver!!! 🥈🥈🥈🥈
I’m giving away pure silver to up to 4 free subscribers on April 1, 2024
💌 Get The Anarchist Investor automatically delivered to your inbox and get notified whenever a new post drops for free!
Subscribe for free here: anarchistinvestor.substack.com
Or better yet…Become a paid subscriber to get access to:
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Taking it One Step Further
The TLDR version is that most of the silver ever mined has been used in industry and that the vast majority of that silver has been thrown away as it resides within products that get discarded (electronics and such). The very aggressive estimate is that of the 1.5 billion tonnes ever mined, 90% of all of that silver is sitting in garbage piles.
A secondary estimate points to 98% of all the gold ever mined (about 200 billion tonnes) has a known whereabouts. Using some back of the napkin math that means the amount of silver in circulation is 150 billion tonnes and that of gold is 196 billion tonnes. This would make readily available silver more rare than gold.
Now do I think this means Silver should be more valuable than gold. Absolutely not! Gold is more difficult to mine, there is less of it estimated to exist at all, and silver is a by-product of a lot of other mining processes so it’s easier to replenish the amount used up through industrial processes. However, it does put into context the value of silver from an industrial metal standpoint. It is used a lot. This creates a great floor of support for its’ value. And yes, I believe silver is very undervalued. It has a place in every contrarian investor’s portfolio.
Bitcoin & Crypto Will Crash
But there is still a future for the blockchain!
When was the last time everyone was buzzing about investing in something and it was still undervalued? More often than not, the in vogue investment is either a fraud or it’s overhyped and thus overvalued (at least in the present). This blog article written by Darren Neimke in October of 2008 includes an anecdote I’ve heard many times before as a trader and investment professional. “When your taxi driver is telling you to buy stock, you know it’s time to sell.”
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” - Mark Twain
“Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it.” -Edmund Burke
“You have to know the past to understand the present.” - Carl Sagan
The Dotcom Bubble
I wasn’t in the financial industry yet in the year 2000. What I was doing was day trading Amazon from my freshman dorm room in New Orleans. You could buy AMZN at 9:30 am and sell by 12:00 pm and make $50-$100. For a poor freshman in an expensive city, that was good money. Why was I buying Amazon’s stock? Whenever they had an increase in website visits, the stock would go up. That’s it. Did they make any money from those website visits? Who gives a crap, stock go up!
In the 10 years preceding the NASDAQ’s top in March of 2000, the index appreciated by over 1,100%.
In the 2 years following the Dotcom Bubble bursting, the NASDAQ fell by over 78% from its’ All Time High.
What fueled this rise and fall? Low interest rates that pushed investors into riskier assets to try and find a return. Sitting on cash was pointless and so it made much more sense to buy stocks or bonds that offered a higher upside or yield. Dotcom companies were everywhere. The Initial Public Offering market was swamped with the next Pets.com that was going to get millions of page views and that meant they were worth Billions of dollars. Again, no consideration as to whether that translated into actual economic activity. Just random folks throughout the world clicking on and looking at a webpage.
Fraud was rampant. Bubbles and mania’s are always marked by high levels of fraud. When there’s lots of loose flowing money, the pick pockets are always lurking. Two of the largest corporate scandals in US history occurred during this period of time. Enron and MCI Worldcom. Both of them were huge companies that were mostly just fronts for their executives stealing money. Many IPO’s were basically pump and dump schemes. Several of them were websites a high schooler could’ve coded in a night that then engineered page views to make it look like it was attracting legitimate business. Think of it in the present like someone buying fake views on YouTube. Or also the transaction volume on a blockchain (dark foreshadowing)!
Don’t Miss Your Chance At Free Silver!!! 🥈🥈🥈🥈
I’m giving away pure silver to up to 4 free subscribers on April 1, 2024
💌 Get The Anarchist Investor automatically delivered to your inbox and get notified whenever a new post drops for free!
Subscribe for free here: anarchistinvestor.substack.com
Or better yet…Become a paid subscriber to get access to:
📚 Access to the full Anarchist Investor Archive
💰 My weekly portfolio update newsletter detailing allocations and performance
🎁 Incredible paid subscriber-only giveaways and promotions
All Bubbles Burst
It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when and by how much. Dotcom stocks were a sure thing. Every college kid, cab driver, and waiter had their favorite dotcom stocks that were going to make them wealthy and get them out of their $5 an hour job. They were going to retire in 5 years because Global Crossing was going to the moon!
Reality hit because of two things. The first, that was a known quantity, was the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates and thus constricted credit conditions. The interest rates began to rise in 1999 but the full effect of them wouldn’t be felt until later on in 2000. Reduced lending meant there was much less, low cost debt that firms could use to prop up companies that weren’t profitable. The overall effect of these rate increases was underestimated and not priced into equities prices appropriately. However, this only set the table for the burst. The final straw that broke the camel’s back was a somewhat unforeseen occurrence. Japan’s economy fell into a recession. At the time, a huge amount of trade was done with Japan. They manufactured a lot of the electronics and industrial machinery used throughout the world. The country’s recession caused a drop in confidence in the foundational parts of the US economy that weren’t necessarily in a bubble. When those stocks began to sell off, it all unraveled in a hurry.
Crypto Has All the Signs
I’m sorry to say, I think crypto is the future but the money flowing into it right now is dumb money. Private equity firms are stealing from average people thinking that they’re going to become billionaires. The hype is absolutely incredible and no one wants the party to stop. Unfortunately, just like a dotcom stock with no revenues, the only thing propping up the price in most crypto’s is the attraction of new money coming into it. It’s the greater fool theory in real time. Very little is being discussed about actual business activity on blockchains that underlie these coins and tokens. There are some examples of business transactions but the vast majority are still just speculators trading coins back and forth and driving the prices higher. And most of it is driven by influencers who are basically just cheerleaders.
FTX was a gigantic fraud. The crypto exchange’s failure resulted in $8.9 billion in missing assets. It looks like about 90% of those assets have been located but I’m not certain all of them will be returned to FTX’s customers. That process is still playing out. One of the largest bank failures in US history, Signature, was linked to crypto losses as a result of ‘Poor Management’. That means a financial institution that is supposed to be conservative in what it exposes itself to was destroyed because of speculation into “the future”.
“We live in an era of fraud in America. Not just in banking, but in government, education, religion, food, even baseball... What bothers me isn't that fraud is not nice. Or that fraud is mean. For fifteen thousand years, fraud and short sighted thinking have never, ever worked. Not once. Eventually you get caught, things go south. When the hell did we forget all that? I thought we were better than this, I really did.” - Mark Baum (‘The Big Short’)
Dotcom companies were set to be the future in many ways. But only a few of them were actually solving problems and growing legitimate businesses. Most of the others were simply fronts for fraud and theft. Many folks look at a Bitcoin ETF as validation and crypto becoming mainstream. I see it as Wall Street not wanting to be left out of the cash grab. Private equity firms have been able to pump and dump a lot of shit and meme coins and firms limited by regulation haven’t been able to get in on the fun. Well here we are.
The final chink in its’ armor at present is Bitcoin and the crypto industry have never gone through a real recession. HODL is a great strategy when the economic wheels stay on the track. But what happens when folks that are cash poor and Bitcoin rich get fired and need to pay their food bills? They’re going to sell and it won’t matter at what price.
Desperation
A lot of folks want to believe in crypto and Bitcoin specifically as its’ flagship because they’re tired of the controllers of the financial system getting wealthy off of their backs. Predatory lending, ridiculous fees, debasement of the US Dollar, and a host of other grievances are valid and need a solution. Housing is unaffordable, interest rates on debt have gone up dramatically, and the standard ‘American Dream’ is seen as unattainable. Millennials and Gen Z specifically are the ones looking for an answer.
Interest rates have gone up which means cash is worth something again. You can earn a yield on it. The problem is, most folks don’t have any. So what little they have is getting funneled into risky bets to try and make up the stagger on higher credit card payments and ever more expensive staples of daily life.
But I’m worried that out of desperation the average crypto purchaser right now is grasping for anything they can. It’s not calculated or measured. It’s a religious faith that promises to fix all that ails them. And even more, it promises to make everyone wealthy while also predicting the ultimate schadenfreude. The wealthy elite that have kept the average joe/jane under their thumb for so long will get their comeuppance. And it means that they’ll risk losing what is left of their assets to realize that nirvana.
Out of the Ashes
The bursting of the dotcom bubble had ripples that lasted over a decade. Most of the darling companies of that mania died and withered away. However, a handful arose and today are some of the largest companies in the world. The internet was revolutionary but only a handful of the companies from that era built business models that have stood the test of time. The same is true of Crypto and Blockchain technology. Private blockchains will become more common. In fact, part of the fear of AI run amuck can be addressed via blockchain. However, I am most excited about truly decentralized architectures that intend to democratize data infrastructure. Ultimately, most of the blockchain projects today won’t make it. But some will arise out of the coming crash in 10 years. It’s why crypto and blockchain have a place in an Anarchist Investor’s portfolio. However, it requires a rational decision making process to determine which investments to make and how much to risk.
Get something out of this article? Awesome! Please let me know in the comments, and feel free to share this post with your friends. It would help a lot!
Keep in mind that investment and investment results are very much based on you as an individual. I am not an investment advisor. I’m a dude with an opinion. Do not rely solely on the discussion here to inform your investment decisions. Always make the investment decisions that are right for you and your situation