Bitcoin surged to new heights this week, climbing past $125k and then immediately retracing, which served as a catalyst to capitulate all alts by 20-30%. Even amid a prolonged U.S. government shutdown and the absence of key economic data, crypto investors still remain mostly optimistic, fueled by falling yields, expectations of future rate cuts, and further institutional involvement. From BlackRock's record-breaking Bitcoin ETF profits to new corporate treasuries anchored on Avalanche and Solana, digital assets continued to cement their position as a core macro asset class.
While Bitcoin grabbed headlines, the real story of the week may be the quiet revolution in payments. Small businesses like Prevail Coffee are embracing stablecoins to escape crushing credit card fees, using Coinbase's Base chain to process transactions instantly and cheaply. With giants like Walmart preparing crypto integrations through OnePay, stablecoins are being primed to become a powerful disruptor in how consumers and merchants move money. On the regulatory front, Congressman Bryan Steil reaffirmed optimism for passing comprehensive crypto legislation by year-end, urging the Senate to adopt the House's Clarity Act as the foundation. His message was clear: the U.S. cannot afford to stall innovation through overregulation or enforcement-first policies.
Bitcoin's sharp retracement reminds crypto traders and investors that even in a bullish macro backdrop, profit-taking and overextension can trigger fast reversals. Eyes will stay on whether BTC can hold the $117K level as support.
SPS Weekly Performance Overview
The week's price action clearly defined the current trading range boundaries, with SPS trading essentially flat this week, closing just 0.25% from $0.00794 to $0.00774. A complete antithesis to the wider alts market. Market cap increased modestly from $3.78M to $3.84M, tracking the range-bound activity. Support established in the $0.0075-0.0076 zone. Resistance formed a ceiling at $0.0079-0.0080. Multiple attempts to clear this level failed on October 3rd, 7th, and 8th. The chart structure shows lower highs forming since early October from $0.00794 to $0.00784, creating mild bearish divergence on the 4-hour timeframe. This pattern suggests distribution and potential range compression before the next directional move. A breakout above $0.0080, with volume confirmation, would target $0.00825-$0.0084 for short-term scalps. However, a breakdown below $0.0075 would likely trigger a retest of the $0.0073 support level from late September, with $0.0071 as the next major level below that.
Market Analysis - Trends
The biggest development this week wasn't in SPS price action but the new Conclave Arcana Reward Set announcement. The new reward set introduces 43 cards with changes to the economic model. Loot chest costs doubled in glint. Gold foil drop chances decreased from 4% to 1% in card draws. The new Unbinding Scroll system requires additional resources to make regular foil cards tradable. Gold foils are now tradable immediately but have print limits (5000 common, 2000 rare, 1200 epic, 400 legendary).
Fellow splinterlands content creator, @costanza, published a detailed post highlighting structural problems with the new set. The core issue is supply without demand. Splinterlands has many players botting with existing assets and a few new players. The team continues raising costs and reducing drop rates, relying on a handful of whale players to buy up gold cards and provide liquidity. Splinterlands' problem is not new, but without new players flowing in, the negative spiral continues as cards trend toward DEC burn value, DEC trends down as packs reprice lower, and each weakens the other. And this is mirrored in the SPS price action.
Market Analysis - Volumes & Liquidity
Trading volume increased this week to an average of $43k daily, up from the prior week's $33k. But price remained flat at $0.00784. This divergence between volume and price typically indicates distribution, with sellers meeting buying pressure and preventing upward movement. The increased volume without directional follow-through suggests large holders may be using liquidity to exit positions gradually without crashing price.
Concluding Thoughts
SPS spent the week in neutral consolidation, neither breaking out nor breaking down from the $0.0075-0.0080 range. The new Conclave Arcana mini set announcement has doubled chest costs, reduced gold foil odds, and continued card supply increases without addressing demand concerns, signalling more pain ahead for the in-game economy. Near-term price action will likely remain range-bound until some catalyst forces a break. The broader question is whether Splinterlands can break the negative spiral of increasing supply, declining demand, falling card values, and weakening token prices.
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