I think Hive blockchain is a commodity product. There's nothing proprietary and the entire chain can be replicated. It's more about distribution/branding than uniqueness.
We could wake up tomorrow to a hard-fork that creates E-Hive (like Elon Musk brands it, or G-Hive, like Google Hive becomes a brand) that air drops all Hive users the exact value of what they have in Hive. How many will start using E-Hive instead? Probably, a lot would. Which means that those in the old Hive system will see a great decline in value. And not only would the users jump ship to a new charismatic brand, but so would the dapps.
You probably wonder, so why hasn't that happened yet? The user base in Hive is too small to attract attention. It's a double-edged sword. Hive won't gain in value without the user base growing. If the user base grows to the point of attracting large investor attention, then someone with money and skill may decide it's easier, faster and cheaper to duplicate.
Do I think hive is 100x in 10 years? It's declined 9 times in value in 1 year. The number of active users remains about the same. Most of the new wealth created goes to the top 20 accounts. I want to believe it's a superior product and that superior products always win in the marketplace. But, that's not always true. I will keep playing the game. There's a chance of great return, but at best Hive is a speculative investment.
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Very thought provoking response. I see your point and agree in part. I will have to digest it slowly while I enjoy it.
If someone forks the chain, would the community supports it?
If A forks it, what’s stopping B to Z from forking A?
Also if A forks it, will all the layer 2 apps be forked? And who will maintain the forked layer 2 apps?
My gut feeling is that community follow up is critical to the success of the forked chain.
Thanks again for your insights. More to chew on for me! ;)
!PIZZA
Is the idea or the community bigger? If the idea is bigger, then a new community can form around the fork that is larger than the old community. If the community is bigger, then the new fork doesn't happen, or doesn't have an impact.
You nailed it!
In regard to second layer tokens, they move with the crowd. I think the biggest risk for Hive is if Splinterlands moves elsewhere. The user base for Splinterlands is most of the Hive blockchain traffic. Never underestimate the greed of others.