Analysis of a flash crash - LEO!

Picking up some Leo

I've been picking up some Leo over the last couple of weeks. 100 last week and another 100 this week. Some small chunks to try and build up my stack.

I was a little surprised to see that my second 100 Leo purchase had gone through yesterday. I'd put them on at a price of 0.20 Hive after intially fighting for the top spot in the buyers' order book. I resigned myself to waiting for a better price.

Looking at the chart I should have been a little more ambitious. Or a whole lot more!

LeoPriceChart.png

Analysis of the crash

So what happened? Time to follow the money.

The hive-engine explorer shows my purchase was an exchange with @leoschein as follows:

LeoPurchaseExplorer.png

Following that account through the explorer shows a whole stack of trades made in the same block. This suggests a single large sale of Leo carving down through all the available liquidity.

LeoscheinExplorer.png

And finally here's some excerpts from the block itself...
https://he.dtools.dev/tx/de58172e9686cd2ad513aeb0e484bc3a50e7cd4e

A 21k sale of Leo:

overallsale.png

And my purchase of 100 Leo for 20.01 Hive. Not bad at all!

mypurchase.png

How low did the price go?

The block seems to be in chronological order, with the lowest price purchases at the bottom. So the best prices were, drum roll ...

In 3rd place: @zoe24 with a purchase of 500 Leo for 6.75 Hive.

zoe24.png

In 2rd place: @richardcrill with a purchase of 1936 Leo for 19.99 Hive.

richard.png

And in 1st place: @indextrader24 with a purchase of 470 Leo for 4.70 Hive. A nice price of 100 Leo per Hive - a rate 20x bettter than my own purchase in the same block!

indextrader24.png

Thin liquidity and patience

I never put in really low bids on order books. I've tried it in the past but never have the patience to hold the liquidity there on the chance of a rare event. Particularly given that the Hive on sale will not be earning any yield.

Still, it can be worth a punt on books with low liquidity as yesterday's events showed.

Based on the depth chart there's now around 37,000 Leo on sale above a price of 100 Leo per Hive. It's not an impossible amount but I'll probably give it a miss. Lightning almost never strikes twice.

Not financial advice. Please do your own research.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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This is the breakdown I was looking for.

Great work, detective!

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

No problem! Not such a difficult analysis. Just a little trawling through the hive-engine explorer.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Knowledge is power! Looks like your top 3 listed there got some crazy flash sale on LEO!

Thin liquidity = high slippage, some were prepared and they got paid 🦁

Posted using LeoFinance Mobile

Yes, there are opportunities from such moves for those that are well prepared. It's never been my strong point though!

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Some bargain buys for sure and had no idea those prices were even possible.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Bargains indeed. Wish I'd set my bids a bit lower!

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Missed the boat for some really affordable LEO. Probably won't see that again anytime soon.

I doubt it will go down to those levels organically. It would have to be another large sell through all the buy orders. So it's a case of setting a very low bid and forgetting about it.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Thanks for digging into this and explaining it to us.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

No problem. I always like understanding why things like this happen.

Or rather how things like this happen. It's only the method side of things. Not the motivation.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Nice work for Making it high in Leo

Thanks! I'm getting some stake slowly. Certainly not high in the rankings yet though!