Yes this is a difficult problem. Let's start at some of your more direct questions. Is Hive Engine creating demand or eating the lunch of Hive value so to speak. It's probably likely Hive Engine tokens are sucking from the existing value of Hive. It is less likely that at this point it is producing new money and users.
However to be fair. I don't believe the trade volume that's going on with Hive Engine is greatly impacting the value of Hive enough to be responsible for the dramatic price decline. I would say that was an eventuality based on issues in the structure of Hive itself. In other words i believe this was going to happen with or without Hive Engine.
So a significant part of the problem is how the ecosystem values blogs. Well i hate to be harsh but the value of the blogs are probably either very low or zero. That is because no market can create enough value where most of the resource itself is free, unless it can create enough growth. Keep that in mind will mention that later. So it's more than likely more value will end up going out than coming in.
Let's run some theoretical numbers here. Let's use the value of a social media account and plant it at $200 over the lifetime of the account. Okay but if the account itself value wise is taking out $400 than you're at a zero sum game just for this example.. So how do you fix this? Well again it's not a simple fix based on the design on dpos systems. However, one theory i'd have is all upvotes should have been equal and all stake should have been bonded and paid at a more sustainable annual interest rate. So let's say it was 20%. then you'd have that paid back in the crypto itself and the upvotes counted the same. The reason you'd want this is to create an artificial competitive pricing system. Which doesn't exist as it were so you get this crazy eradict price drops etc.,
I think the original vision of smt was that we'd stumble upon a super application. My concern is that not only is over the years Steem and Hive created some of the most elegant designs and interfaces in my opinion which are my favorite to use. They've created high demand like products that really didn't go anywhere. So they created things like Twitter , Reddit, Sound cloud Youtube you name it.. Any of those could have caught fire. I guess my point is i'm less optimistic about such an application saving the day.
It would seem the big focus in crypto is price and profit unfortunately. The inflation rate of Hive is high and the growth doesn't match the high inflation which is not the best scenario. So some want to focus there and maybe less on tech and building since we've done that from the beginning nonstop. Bitcoin and Doge coin are high ranked coins and it's not due to technological achievement. Facebook and Reddit didn't change their ui's for years and gained value without much improvement. So i think in identifiying an issue it's not going to always come down to just build more stuff.
Foreseeing this issue we had proposed a freemium service model designed to onboard masses of people to try to correct the high inflation rate void of growth. In the proposal the idea was to create value of over $2 billion of new money coming through the Hive blockchain. It would first happen by extracting value from Bitcoin. Going on to create this freemium service model and to be more clear about what we mean by freemium service model. We mean an approach like facebook that builds a product pushing a trillion dollars at almost no upfront cost to the end user. We don't mean a carbon copy of facebook or selling data but that idea is the best i can give in a short explanation the gist is growth without direct investment necessarily from the investor. So through a sophisticated crypto outreach program targeting bitcoin value and freemium services we proposed on doing this.
Unfortunately the community not seeing the potential problems at hand the proposal was rejected flat out. I fear that was a mistake. The other part is these real issues are easy to passover in that there is an air of optimism with the people at the top. So if most of your value is connected to certain projects.. it's easy to make bad judgment calls because " it would be better" if the project succeeds. So lack of practicality and rationality can go out the window. So i think many of us are stuck in that cycle.
So what will happen next? Well my theory is Hive prices will more than likely keep declining until they reach a more fixed point of stability. Which can be kinda good in that atleast if you're blogging you can more depend on a stable payout in your content. May not be so good for bigger investors as they probably are less blogging. The other issue is It's not just that the price is declining its that the volume is declining as well. Which often times follows price declines. So in comparing metrics it is declining. If the volume increased price wouldn't matter so much you'd just aquire more coins. However if the volume is lower then it becomes harder to get out of positions or the prices you want. So alot to consider that's my assessment and i hope this complex issue can be solved.
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Lot of good stuff in here, thanks for sharing! I do agree with you that we need revenue coming in otherwise the days are numbered. What was your idea to bring in the revenue? Ads?