So I dunno if you've noticed, but crypto prices are pretty volatile.
BTC went from 63k to 30k in a fairly short amount of time. Personally, I've seen my portfolio value drop by a large number. It makes me sad.
But then I remind myself, crypto is a binary bet.
What I mean by that is that owning crypto at this point in history is betting that people in the future will find a non-government controlled currency attractive.
There are no true cryptos that are used as money yet. Some people are starting to use BTC (and ETH to a lesser degree) as a sort of digital gold/store of value. That's a good first step, but it's only one element of money-ness.
Over the next few decades, we will see if crypto can become a real money that is used in everyday life. If it doesn't and only stays as a digital store of value outside the fiat systems, that can still work.
If it survives at all over that time frame, the relative proportion of global wealth held in crypto has to increase dramatically.
If governments are successful at shutting down crypto (possible, but unlikely to me) or people just decide they'd rather be subject to bureaucrats' monetary decisions (seems really unlikely) then crypto is going to zero.
Personally, I'm betting a huge percentage of my net worth that people will continue to find an outlet from fiat money attractive and governments won't be able to stop it since the genie is already out of the bottle.
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To me this is just impossible, would be needed a ban from all the countries or at least all the most powerful countries to really shut down crypto, China's move is forcing miners to go out from there, equally a ban in USA or in the EU would cause similar responses.
Crypto is generally one step behind than any regulation and i think it will keep being like that as is easier to build new ways to use crypto than to adapt the regulation.
I agree with you that your second notion is probably the better bet! It seems like at this point it is a train that anyone would be crazy to try and stop. The genie is out and granting wishes right and left!
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Goldman sachs has made bitcoin a new asset officially; China only banned miners, who use coal generated energy to power up their mines.
I don't think crypto would go zero. They may not become the "real money" we wanted them to be though...
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Fiat only favors the people in control of it, govt. it is highly unlikely that people will succumb to such corrupt, unfair and erratic one sided system in the future. People will get used to volatility, crypto will never go to zero
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May the odds be ever in our favor
It is certainly so man, what we do for cryptography and decestralized economy will serve for future generations.
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Its either we all hop back on the fiat train (ugh no) or continue towards this crazy new token economics.
With the rise of the attention economy, I can only see token economics working out.
Crypto offers some interesting problems of its own with possible solutions as well. I do wonder how a world without fiat would handle the less wealthy, less well to do, less intelligent, less capable. You know, our fellow humans who have a right to a dignified existence if they don't aggress on someone else. Currently they are "taken care of" through lifesavers made out of fiat, with the added catch it basically makes them a slave to the state in terms of government welfare. Remove that, and what takes its place? I'm not even saying that crypto can't find a solution to this problem, I see charity crypto drives constantly. I'm just curious what comes about.
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