Splinterlands Airdrop Math - What's the Expected Value of Your Drop?

in LeoFinance3 months ago

So there were some questions in the discord today when I dropped this:

image.png

Airdrop sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jjZn01cgr0ziLgEw2bjDtrGonVgpzHsTVNkXDWhpw_k/edit#gid=0

Web alternative by @tehox: https://splintercards.com/tool-sps-airdrop.html

So how is expected value calculated?

We know that 400,000,000 SPS will be airdropped to players based on their assets each day for 1 year. That works out to 1,095,890 SPS per day.

We know that the private sale price of SPS is 0.018 USD.

We have an estimate that the total ecosystem airdrop points will be somewhere are 5.5-6 billion points.

So to calculate your expected value you total your airdrop points, divide them by 6 billion or so, multiply by 400,000,000, and multiply that by $0.018.

EV over the next year = YourPoints / 6,000,000,000 x 400,000,000 x 0.018

I updated my spreadsheet to include a range of values like so:

image.png

Now it is important to remember a couple things:

1, the total number of airdrop points will change. New DEC will be printed. Chaos Legion will add collection power. People will buy skins (even I bought a set of skins!).

2, the price of SPS will change once there's a market for it. Maybe it'll go down, maybe it'll go up. Hopefully it'll be desirable and go up.

But for now, this is the best estimate we have looking forward to the next year of airdrops.

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Thanks a lot for https://splintercards.com tool. Based on these numbers I'm gonna have a great ROI from the airdrop. Very happy with the numbers I got. Thanks for sharing :)
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Just for clarity, splintercards is created and maintained by @tehox

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Does the valuations that people are doing take into account all the Dec that will be between now and through the life of the drop?
Also seems like they will be increasing the print rate of dec in the future

Nope. It's a known unknown

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After seeing what's happening in the nft gaming space with Alienworlds and planet, I'm not surprised at all with the earning potential sps will provide. To be honest, the sps token could 10x from the sale price, sending all SL assets skyrocketing in price as well. It's all about tokenomics and game economics right now. Billions of dollars are sloshing around, you never know what might happen