What will happen to the market if the election is split? Chances for stimulus go way down and the market along with it.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=xigO
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews
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Automated transcript:
hey everybody it is november 2nd
2020 i mean it's the day before election
day and i wanted to record uh this video
because uh you know there's been a lot
of talking about who's gonna win who's
gonna lose
and uh that's all you know well and good
and everything but i think the biggest
thing people have to watch out for
is what if it's split and i don't mean
the presidency being split i mean
all the houses of congress and the
presidency being split so we have
you know there's three uh things we have
to look at there's the house of
representatives
there's the senate and the presidency so
um you know i've been playing around
with the 538 election
simulator thing here this is really
actually a lot of fun where
you can you can see that they have their
polling data
the the stronger the color the more
likely uh
you know a winner is so you know idaho
is pretty solidly for trump
and organs pretty solidly for bite so
that's all great
but you can pick and choose the
battleground states as so what you think
is going to happen
and uh you know my guess
and you know i'm no uh i'm not pollster
but i think
i think trump takes florida i think
trump takes georgia
and you can see that this thing is is
changing we go
with these two battleground states
locked in we have trump at 35
and 100 chances of winning and biden at
64
i think the big swing thing that i think
is going to happen is that trump takes
pennsylvania
so that shifts his odds dramatically so
those three things florida georgia
pennsylvania
georgia traditionally red state uh i
live in georgia
and uh you know the atlanta metro area
is you know
is an enclave of you know 50 50 democrat
and republican and you know rural
georgia
is pretty much solidly republican and
the population between those two
are about even florida you know
uh typically you get the the tri-county
area in the
south east of uh palm beach uh broward
and miami-dade
those typically vote for biden uh but
you know we've been seeing new stories
recently that uh you know the
in-person early voting is going heavily
republican that might be an artifact of
of party split but you know it's
interesting so
uh and then we know we saw rallies from
pennsylvania the other day
uh enormous crowds coming out for trump
so
uh i think he takes those three and with
the
with the polling data of the other ones
as it is
then uh it looks like you know trump
wins in in the
in that scenario so uh
so that's all that's all well and good
now
the thing that everybody's talking about
though so if republicans sweep
then we get we get trump four more years
we get
uh republican senate and republican
house
then the impediments to stimulus
uh money whether it be to individuals or
companies or some mixture
is very low because you know they all
want to be seen to be doing something
for the american people so uh
that's all well and good if the
democrats sweep
and that can that can happen you know if
uh
if biden takes florida then
it's likely that alone will will tip it
for biden
uh you know there's been some rumblings
about texas uh
so you know that's a possibility but if
biden takes florida and pennsylvania
then biden's a lock basically so and
again
if if biden wins the presidency and
the democrats take the senate and the
democrats keep the house
then no problem stimulus money flowing
everywhere
you know the debates joe biden was
saying
stuff about how the uh
businesses need to be given the
resources to open safely
and you know that means money for ppe
and dividers and all that stuff
so you know you know when i hear that
kind of stuff i just think oh inflation
you know
uh so that's all that's all good if
there's a split
in that uh you know at least one house
of congress is different than
the presidency then it's going to be a
very rough
time because any kind of stimulus
package is going to be
if existing at all is going to be
delayed
and you know it's going to be all that
political wrangling back and forth over
you know who gets what where the money
goes and all that kind of stuff so
why does that matter it matters because
of this chart right here
so i went to the to the fred which is a
you know the economic data uh database
for
um the federal reserve of st louis
and what this is is s p 500 you know
daily close
divided by the federal reserve assets
and you can see here's the coveted crash
and then you can see effectively no
recovery
so what does that mean it means that all
of the
if we go to go to trading view and we
look at
the s p 500 we can see
oh that's bitcoin p
it's spx let's zoom out a bit
so we can see here's the coveted crash
let's zoom in a little bit
the cobra crash and then you know crazy
rally
that we saw from from the blows there
was all my birthday actually march 23rd
uh so yeah you know that's been led by
by the tech companies and the nasdaq you
know
it it rallied you know back to back to
even and then
you know has gone even farther we've
seen a little bit of a double top
forming here
but you know if the money doesn't flow
then we can see that this is a problem
because the money flowing is what has
allowed
these companies to uh you know to engage
in all the stock shenanigans that we're
all used to
uh but raising market value price so you
know if there's a
if there's a republican president and a
republican sweep of the
of the congress or democratic president
and democrat sweep
the congress then we know that the
stimulus will flow but if not
it won't and this thing will probably
roll over which means
this chart will roll over so uh that is
an issue you know that gridlock that you
know can happen
will have you know i think severe
consequences on the market
on the other hand you know if everything
flows
and we get our our our money in our in
our pockets you know i was about to say
free money but it's not free money
because you know it's just paid for
some other way whether it's through
inflation or you know more accurately
reduced purchasing power
or uh you know the the
uh the earlier cares act and another
stimulus
from earlier in the year where it's it's
an anticipatory
tax credit uh which is kind of insane
that they did it that way
and we'll see how that works uh you know
i'm in the tax business so
i expect a very interesting uh tax
season coming up
but yeah tomorrow's election night and
uh although
you know we are expecting things to be
um
delayed because you know states like
pennsylvania are
are counting you know several days after
their
uh their their deadline because of the
mail-in ballots and everything so
uh we will have to wait and see how that
goes but uh yeah
i don't know it's shaping up to be an
interesting one and you know hedge your
bets accordingly
Whoever wins Florida will win the election.
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This was a great video, the Smart Money is selling the tops at this time.
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I can’t imagine a scenario where Republicans take the House. The Presidency or the Senate could go either way, but I haven’t seen any polling, even from conservatives, suggesting a Republican House.
at this time crypto depend on elections many coins are going Down.. Hope so elections will never split...
looking now every-thing will be fine.
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