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RE: Interest Rates And Failed Monetary Policy

in LeoFinance4 months ago

If you are at risk of losing your job, do you go and add more debt to your balance sheet?

I'm not talking about the extremes. People aren't just divided into the rich and those at risk of losing their job. There are a lot of people in stable jobs, that can look to these lower interest rates as a sign that they can try buying a new car, or a new house. My sister bought a house during the pandemic.

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There is nothing extreme about it.

You have a large section of the population in the developed countries that are really living paycheck to paycheck. Hence the idea of a stable job is really misleading. There are a "lot more" who arent. Are coders stable? Seems the tech sector has been cleaning house. The automotive industry is in recession. Retail is always crap. Automation is gaining favor with companies that can afford to implement it.

And people believe interest rates are going to remain elevated. These are deflationary scenarios which always impact the working class the most.

Again, banks are going to tighten lending during those times.

What you are describing is what Milton Friedman talked about with the interest rate fallacy. Yet, 60 years later, people are still believing lower rates means money is plentiful when it is the exact opposite.

I was mostly talking about the middle to upper middle class. A lot in the medical field have relatively stable jobs; Physical Therapists, Nurses, Doctors, etc. I do agree that a lot more in the tech industry are getting hit because of the generative AI. But DBA, Sysad, Network Engineers, Server Engineers, Audit, etc, are stilly relatively safe. There are definitely starting to be more automation, but with critical systems, humans are still dominant.

I think people in those kinds of jobs with relative job security are the ones who can take advantage of lower interest rates to buy big ticket items. While they may not be as much as those whose jobs are in jeopardy, I think it does help get some money circulating.