RE: LeoThread 2025-09-20 18:20

[professorstrange]

Strong take that Trump is throttling the H-1B pipeline

Comments

[professorstrange]

⚡️A structural kill shot cloaked as moderation — not a rollback
The administration expected that an immediate clampdown on current holders would trigger courts, corporations, and universities to seek injunctions and claim disruption

[professorstrange]

So existing H‑1Bs were spared while the intake was strangled — the very pipeline keeping Silicon Valley, outsourcing shops, and Indian IT mills running. Stop new entries, and the stock simply ages out, letting the model decay slowly

[professorstrange]

Like cutting off oxygen: the body (current H‑1Bs) keeps moving briefly, but without fresh supply the system collapses from within
The unmasked implication:

[professorstrange]

• For American labor: For the first time in decades the cost-arbitrage model is being structurally dismantled. In 2–3 years, wages at the lower tier of STEM jobs should rise, not from pure market forces, but because the cheap-labor conveyor belt is being cut off

[professorstrange]

• For Indian IT giants: Stock moves already reflect the damage. Their business model is fundamentally impaired — undercutting wages on contracts depended on steady cheap-visa inflows

[professorstrange]

• For universities: The H‑1B system acted as a backdoor subsidy to boost STEM enrollments. Shut the exit pipeline and the higher-ed incentive structure unravels — a slow but lethal bleed

[professorstrange]

• For markets: The initial calm ("existing holders are safe") misreads the situation. This isn’t about the next quarter — it rewires the labor supply chain, which is far more radical

[professorstrange]

The administration has lit a fuse under the 30-year outsourcing experiment. It will look like a slow policy tweak at first, but in 12–24 months it should trigger a cascade: higher wages, reshoring pressure, offshoring taxes, weaker university demand, and a structural repricing of foreign IT stocks

[professorstrange]

This is asymmetric warfare with a delayed detonation