A few thoughts on the global economics of agricultural land...

in LeoFinance3 years ago

There are just over 1.5 billion Hectares of agricultural land currently being used for food production in the world today. That is roughly 30% of all available land, split 23% to 7% livestock to crops. (Source: Our World in Data with their data coming from the FAO/ World Bank.)

If we use the current world population of 8 billion people (OK rounded up from 7.8 billion, but we're not far off!) then that gives us an acreage per person of 0.44.

(That's 1.5 billion Hectares divided by 8 billion people converted to acres.)

Or in terms of a football pitch that's this much productive land per person in the world today:

dimensions_football_field 2.png

That's all of the commercially productive land that's currently devoted to growing all your food!

Now it's probably very obvious that isn't anywhere near enough land to feed a person, which kind of shows you the importance of subsistence growing today which isn't included in the World Bank's/ FAO's data, and I guess we have to add in fish stocks to this as well, which won't be counted.

But even with throwing in a few fish and counting what is probably quite a small amount of subsistence land (most land is owned by the rich, after all) it doesn't seem like there's much land for food per person. Maybe just enough.

According to the FAO (here) the maximum amount of land that could be turned to agricultural use is 3 times what it is today, or 4.5 billion HA -
that's everything from good to marginal, so I guess we're talking land for grazing mountain goats here.

That would be this much of a football pitch per person:

dimensions_football_field 1.png

There doesn't seem to be enough land to feed everyone!

That's my take away (no pun intended) from these basic statistics.

At least nowhere near enough land to feed everyone with a diverse diet in a sustainable way.

I mean imagine you'd just bought your share of land - 3/4s of a football pitch - if that were representative - around 20% of it would be 'marginal' - so grazing only, you'd have enough room for a few fruit and nut trees and some fertile land for a few veggies - but you'd struggle to crow enough potatoes, wheat, let alone rice, to feed yourself on that acre of land!

Moreover, there is little evidence that we're ever going to have that much land bought under cultivation - not on current trends, and not with increasing amounts of land being degraded and our desire to maintain as much land as possible for conversation purposes.

And of course there's the market - farmers are only going to cultivate new land for production IF there's a market for it - and they're going to direct their efforts towards those food products there is a demand for, and increasingly that means more meat, which is at least 3 times more area-intensive per calorie compared to vegetation.

(NB I'm not going to go on a big pro-vegan rant here, just noting that meat cultivation is more land intensive!)

So we have a situation of basic scarcity compared to a population who want a more varied diet, and also a reduction of the number of people growing their own food (with urbanisation) so all of this means the price of commercially available food is probably going to increase into the future, and this probably means the price of agricultural land is going to increase too.

It thus kind of makes sense to me to go ahead and buy my own piece of productive land now, get my two acres, get it producing and then minimise my exposure to what should be increasing food prices going forwards.

Of course technological advances could lead to more productive acres and cheaper food going forwards, even more artificial food stuffs but that just ties my into big scale agriculture and biotech companies and I don't have much trust in or love for such institutions.

So I'll take my chances with a small land purchase in the not too distance future and get digging for economic victory!

I also like growing things too, which helps of course!

Find out more

If you like fascinating statistics about natural resources - this section of Our World in Data is well worth a browse - on the changing trends in land use globally.

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Google: Indoor Vertical Garden, Hydroponic, roof vegetable garden.

There're so many alternatives. Plenty of food. Don't worry.

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I've tried hydroponics and trust me, < 1% of the population will have the patience for it - well at least where growing lettuce is concerned.

All of those urban solutions are great for greens, not for staples though. That's the real challenge.

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it is kinda ironic when you consider that 80 billion pounds of food which equate to more than $161 billion is wasted in America yearly.
I don't think i would get into agriculture. Might have a garden were i plant fruits and vegetables for recreational purposes (if there is anything like that). I do own a piece of property (and probably have more in my hometown i am not aware of), chances are i would get more in the future. I thinking investing in land is one of the best investments.
When it comes to food security i think technology will play a huge part in increasing produce. Most people don't trust such methods and would rather grow their food organically.

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Food waste is a big thing in the UK too - hundreds of pounds per household on average per year!

I'm not so much thinking about agriculture myself - just meeting say 40% of my food needs from an acre or two - mostly veg and fruit obviously!

I distrust the role of big tech in food production - that's probably a bigger reason for why I want to own land and grow my own TBH!

I'm sure things can get a lot worse than Monsanto's terminator gene.

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Landed properties are being converted to housing areas leaving small spaces for farming, I think the future might see artificially grown crops. We need to worry

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I think this is another argument for buying up some land, it gives you a degree of autonomy over your own food supply!

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Well as it is, the wealthy are buying up all the land. In Nigeria cooperate entities are buying up every land they deem profitable and not slacking at all.

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Hmmm and somehow I only see that leading to increasing inequality!

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Buy land, it will not be more available. It is a limited resource, not only fro crops, but also for wood and the wild.

On the other side, there is the vertical growth like @oldtimer said. In terms of mushrooms it is fine to grow them in a closed and humid environment with low light exposure and they are having more calories than a salad. So they make the perfect food for vertical growth. Deserts can be terraformed back into feasible land for example. Also engineered food is on the verge of a breakthrough, lab grown meat and some other cool stuff that it is in development.

The only thing that I hope we will not get shall be the soylent green.

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I am aware of and quite a fan of all those hi tech hydronic solutions, but the feed is pricey!

I just think from a purely autonomous perspective trees and bushes and soil are going to be the way to go for most of us!

RE Soylent Green - You know I'm sure I have Harry Harrison to thank for my anarchist sympathies - thanks to his 'Stainless Steel Rat' series which I read when I was a kid, wasn't such a fan of Make Room, Make Room! But that's what they made a film about - the Rat series would have been better!

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I just think from a purely autonomous perspective trees and bushes and soil are going to be the way to go for most of us!

Years to come for sure!

RE Soylent Green - You know I'm sure I have Harry Harrison to thank for my anarchist sympathies - thanks to his 'Stainless Steel Rat' series which I read when I was a kid, wasn't such a fan of Make Room, Make Room! But that's what they made a film about - the Rat series would have been better!

I didn't know that. It was the first think coming in my mind when thinking about overpopulation and scarcity of food. Make Room, Make Room! is an interesting view and choosing Soylent Green as a name was even better than the original, as it sticks to the mind. Stainless Steel Rat series is worth a movie series, agree on that. I enjoyed also West of Eden as I was fascinated about dinosaurs when I was 16.

Thanks for the reminders and the comment!

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