Has Bitcoin Finally Bottomed Out After The Largest Difficulty Adjustment Ever?

The recent bloodbath has left many new market participants, and even some veterans, heavily underwater. Suffering losses of up to 50% of their entire portfolios, and more, was a heavy blow both financially, and emotionally. Consequently, sentiment quickly shifted bias and turned from moonboy bullish (we're all getting gf's and lambos) to overly bearish (we're entering a multi-year bear market) in a matter of a couple of red candles.

What this is indicative of is two things:

there are paid actors who want to make you believe the bull run is over so that market movers can buy your coins at a highly discounted price
crypto traders/hodlers are a bunch of low-T cry-babies - buy low, sell high kind of investors that cry when the price is going up because they want lower entry and also cry when it's dumping because they're going to be margin called by their bank for maxing out their credit cards to ape into shitcoins

While most of you are probably aware that this bull cycle is far from being finished, certain group of people want to make you believe otherwise. This whacky price action, alongside an incredible amount of paid FUD, is how they fill their pockets with your cheap coins. Coins, which if you sell, you'll end up having to buy from them at a heavily marked-up price.

Don't let them fool you and allow me to deliver the much needed dose of that sweet, sweet, hopium, we all need right now.

What I'm about to share with you, single-handedly sends all bears back to hibernation. Although they might like to argue that correlation does not mean causation, I begg to differ. Just look at this chart and try to tell me with a straight face that this time it's different, and that this time it won't mark the bottom of this choppy, two-month-long, downtrend.

What you're looking at here are all recorded difficulty adjustments of -11% or lower, during bitcoin's 13-year history. As you can see, each and every time (9 times so far) a difficulty adjustment of -11% or lower, resulted in a massive uptrend. The effects on the trend-change of the latest three negative adjustments we're still waiting to materialize as his is not something that happens overnight.

This is known as a miner squeeze and it's how big mining organizations push out smaller miners out of business.

As the price drops further, and further, fewer small miners are able to stay liquid enough to keep mining. In the process, they have to keep frantically selling their mining rewards to keep up with run-time costs, which adds further downside pressure to bitcoin's price, resulting in a cascading decrease of its value.

This is also how retail investors get to repeate the age old 0 IQ trade of buying euphoria (high) and selling capitulation (low). Guess some people never learn....

This is also exactly how the big dogs of the cryptosphere make most of their profits.

By moving markets and "accidentally" being on the right side of the trade.

For the rest of us plebs, we can only hope to have some tether laying around for when such events take place. If that's not the case, the only thing that's left for us to do, is to weather the storm, hodl, and wait for the markets to turn green again, because they will!

We're still in a bull market ladies and gents, and whoever tells you otherwise is an enemy!

The downtrend bitcoin has experienced recently, has most likely already bottomed out at 28k where there is insane demand, indicative of what smart money thinks about this move ahead and what's to come. It's day 43 of this bloody downward-sloped accumulation, and I don't think we're in for another few months of sideways price-action.

Au contraire, it's my honest oppinion that smart money is close to being done accumulating cheap coins and that we're about to resume the bull market.

So strap on your seatbelts boiz, because things are about to get pretty wild in the next few months!

You might be right and the big players went in on the 28k dip for the long haul. But then, the market is a changing environment, it adapts to expectations and preferences of people, especially to the herd. There really is nothing stopping those who entered on 28k to sell on the way down again once the patterns suggest something else is taking shape than an immediate recovery.

Do I believe the bull is over? Nope. Do I think there will be massive and clear signs when we are finally resuming the uptrend? Yes!

So why would I want to hold BTC as long as market structure makes it questionable to do so?

Maybe I'm too TA for my own good, but I really wouldn't be surprised if we have another magical huge FUD story this month and there will be real capitulation. It doesn't quite hurt enough yet for this to turn upwards for good, and the patterns do suggest that we could easily see another attempt down. I might be wrong of course but I see no clear sign of a bottom yet.

Interesting read. Let's see where it goes!