Historically Sound
Ever since Bitcoin launched, it has followed a 4-year cyclical cycle centered around the halving, which occurs every four years. This has been the compass that has steered and helped many Crypto investors better navigate the turbulent seas of Cryptocurrency investing. Following the pattern has historically been proven to be a sound approach.
This is especially true regarding altcoins, as they tend to take a serious nosedive during the bearish season of the 4-year cycle. Deciding to invest in altcoins at the commencement of a bear market is beyond unwise. Losses compound and build up, eradicating the majority of even the smartest and well-planned altcoin portfolio. It comes down to doing the right thing at the right time.
Doing the right thing at the wrong time can be equated with doing the wrong thing. Yes, altcoin investing is that dangerous. Altcoins appear to be somewhat sluggish this time around. In fact, altcoins have not responded at all, apart from BNB and a handful of other altcoins. Bitcoin is dominating the stage and appears to be muscling up for a strong 2026, which would signal the end of the typical cycle.
This might sound strange. However, such a scenario remains a strong likelihood. Altcoins appear to be responding like rebellious teenagers at the moment; anything can happen. I think enough institutional investment has occurred, enough to cancel a 75% correction for Bitcoin. Bear markets for Bitcoin are now likely to range between 40% and 55%. Apart from a swan event, I don’t envision another 75% correction for Bitcoin.
These are, of course, my opinions. However, I believe there is sufficient data to back up such a scenario. I guess time will tell. That being said, can you imagine the altcoin carnage if BTC retraces by 50%? Altcoins are already sitting at bear market valuations. This is why a strong final quarter for altcoins is so important. Without it, they are dead in the water, especially if Bitcoin flips bearish.
Final Thoughts
Altcoins remain in a sensitive position, and only a strong Altcoin Season can save them. Hopefully, we get to see that with Uptober. This should not be considered investment advice. All the best, see you next time!
Disclaimer
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This article was first published on Sapphire Crypto.
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I can't imagine what altcoins will do if/when bitcoin turns bearish and many of them haven't reach their previous ATH or even beyond. The unrealized losses may be quite huge for many investors with the probability of recovering becoming slim.
Yeah, it's not looking good for altcoins. BTC holds the crown and there's nothing anyone can do about it.
Will be interesting to see if the 4 year cycle really breaks and we won’t have a big winter anymore. I think its likely.