Riding all the way to where the long time frame top can be expected to be and selling then and buying where the long time frame bottom ought to be is the only way, in my opinion.
You just can't time this little movements precisely and accurately enough to make any gains. It is different with the 100x moves up followed by the 85% corrections. Your can on the way up can be only 30x and your timing the bottom can be inaccurate enough to only avoid losing 40% of the value of your BTC, but that way you can still massively outperform BTC itself.
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I do agree with you there. Timing the 4 year cycles might be at least partly possibly. If you just get it half right yous till make yourself a lot of money, as long as they keep repeating anyways. Which at some point, they probably will not.