There is debate about whether the recent job layoffs are due to AI. Some believe it is a sign of things that are already in operation whereas others simply point to economic factors.
We cannot ignore the latter. This is not exclusively an AI driven situation. There is weakness in the economy, led by China being in the toilet. That was bound to have an impact across the world. The EU suffered first followed by the United States.
That said, I think there is something else in play.
Sometimes we get a glimpse of the future before it arrives. Many are jumping to conclusions which is pushing others to counter. For example, there is a contingency that acknowledges some of the layoffs are due to companies embracing AI but they are ahead of the curve. These companies are not ready to embrace it since the technology is not there yet.
I agree. However, that does not negate the fact that companies are heading in this direction and are not going to stop.
In this article we dig into some of the discussion to see if we can garner a bit more insight.
AI Taking Jobs Already
The impact of AI on jobs is long debated. We still have a great divide regarding the discussion. Those who believe that AI will obliterate jobs are often called "doomers".
You can count me in that category.
We are seeing something advancing at a pace never seen before. Whereas, just a few years ago, the mantra was "learn to code", we are now seeing the fact that anything that is done with a keyboard and mouse is targeted by AI.
Ironic, the blue collar jobs such as plumber and pool cleaner seem safe, at least for most of the next decade.
What is happening is the basics in economics. This is nothing more than cost management as other factors start to take a toll.
Disruption Underway
In the United States, job loss reached a 22 year high. That means we are looking at numbers not seen since 2003.
Again, it is easy to chalk it up to nothing more than the economy. However, there is another factor in play: disruption.
The last time these numbers were seen, we were in the midst of the technological disruption called the internet. A lot of things were converging at that time. It was roughly a decade since this was introduced and companies were starting to have an impact.
At that time, newspapers were collapsing on a weekly basis. File sharing was coming into being, upsetting the entire music industry. eCommerce was gaining traction, starting a multi-decade decline for retail.
Was all the bad economic news due to the Internet? Of course not. Nevertheless, there was the underlying trend.
Today, we have something even more powerful. We are looking at the ability to artificially generate cognition. This means knowledge work is in the crosshairs.
Industries are having a tough time adjusting. We only need to look at Hollywood to cite what is occurring. There are massive job losses. Some of this is to other geographic areas. That said, much of this is due to a shift in viewing habits. AI might not be of major impact here, yet, but there are other forces in play.
Companies Cutting
We are seeing companies cutting. The technology sector is getting a lot of attention on this. Actually governments are also following this path.
The cost of doing business is rising. In many areas, increases in minimum wages are forcing companies to adapt. As tax revenue is lost, governments are going to be forced into the same position.
Enter AI.
Whatever the level of capability at this moment, it is improving on a weekly basis. I saw a video where one stated the latest metric is an 80% increase in capability per month. A few years ago, this was 20% per quarter.
My forecast is the next few years, regardless of how the economy goes, will be a period of increasing job loss.
Those that are facing rising labor costs will look to cut. AI offers an ideal solution. String enough agents together and you will be able to eliminate a job. We are already seeing the effects in terms of projected job hiring. Companies are reducing their estimates on workers to be hired in the future. Amazon made headlines with the leak that it will forgo 600K jobs in the future due to automation.
Even if the economy is strong over the next few years, layoffs will persist. It is going to present a major problem for governments as they are typically tasked with stepping in when things go bad.
Unfortunately, they are slow to move (as always) and, quite frankly, ill-equipped to deal with the problem.
My view is the effect on jobs by AI is already started. It is likely the narrative that AI is not going to topple the job market will persist. Sadly, proponents of that view will change only after it is too late.
Posted Using INLEO
Scary times ahead..
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STOPThere's no coming back from this.
AI has only taken over some outdated jobs
It's now time people updates themselves base on the new era we are gradually going into
More jobs will be loss.
I think it's time we focus on what will secure our future