A great deal of attention was paid to the Hive Backed Dollar (HBD) over the last few months. After being overlooked for so long, it finally started to receive the attention it deserves.
Many steps were taken before the last hard fork and with the coding during the upgrade to provide the tools to peg the price of HBD to the $1. Prior to this, the range on HBD was anything but stable. With a cycle of .50 to 2.00 (or worse), that simply did not fill the need.
Source
Since the changes were made, we seem to be on a better path. Over the last couple weeks, it appears the range tightened to where the price is between .95-1.00. While this doesn't quite hit the market, it is close enough where we can start the discussion about HBD as a stablecoin.
One point we have to add is that we are still mired in an overall market pullback. A recent change in the hard fork should provide some defense against the price moving to the upside. That, however, has not really been tested. It is likely that if the bull does start to run, we could see a different scenario play out. On that front, we can only wait.
That said, we did see this happen yesterday:
For a little while, HBD was pegged.
A Unique Stablecoin
One of the most fascinating things about HBD is that it could be a rather unique stablecoin. This differs from some of the main ones such as Tether which came under fire of late.
What makes HBD so interesting?
To answer that, we need to look at what the premise of the token is. From its design, the goal is for HBD to be backed by $1 worth of Hive. This brings up a huge distinction that has to be made.
The token is not backed by USD. That is just a valuation method. The $1 is a unit of measure. The actually backing is the code on the blockchain that converts HBD to $HIVE. Thus, we have a stablecoin that is convertible into $HIVE yet is really backed by the code on the blockchain. There are certain things that the Witnesses can alter to aid in the operation of the token. However, they are limited to what is allowed by the code.
At the same time, token creation is not decided by them (or any other centralized entity). The amount of HBD available is driven by two factors.
- The percentage of HBD to Hive in value
- What the community decides through their conversion to and from HBD
The former is something that is hard coded into the blockchain. When the total value of HBD exceeds 10% of Hive (changed to 30% in Hard For 26), then the blockchain stops printing it. In other words, the 50/50 payouts begin to use liquid $HIVE as opposed to HBD. This continues until the value gets back within the parameters outlined by the Haircut Rule.
With the later, the community now has the ability to convert both ways: from HBD ---> Hive and from Hive ---> HBD. This means that the community has a part in how much HBD is created or destroyed.
To significantly increase the amount of HBD is going to require a great deal of Hive especially at these prices.
Commerce And DeFi
Having a stablecoin is vital for the ecosystem to engage in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and commerce. One of the biggest drawbacks to cryptocurrency right now is the fact that most are involved in speculation. When tokens are treated like stocks, then the utility of them diminishes. HODLing does not expand economic activity and that is precisely what we see.
If Bitcoin is going to 4x over whatever timeframe one is looking at, why would that individual use it to buy anything? The reality is that it will not be used for purchase. Instead, it is held in hopes of price appreciation.
We see the same with Hive albeit on a smaller level. People who are holding the coin do so because they believe there is higher values ahead (there are also other utilities that should be factored in). Nevertheless, none of this endears itself to commerce.
With HBD this is not the situation. In fact, with that token, we are looking at the opposite. Speculation in the sense just described is not desired. We are looking to reduce the volatility on the price. Where speculation enters the picture is in the form of arbitrage. We want people buying the token when they see an opportunity to make money. The reason for this is arbitrage ends up keeping the token pegged. If it gets too far to either side of the $1 line, there is an opportunity to make money by helping to bring it back to the peg.
Another factor working on this is the recent change in the interest paid out on HBD. Prior to the hard fork, all HBD received payments. However, now only those tokens that are moved on chain and into savings are eligible. This is an incentive to remove HBD from the exchanges and lock it up on chain.
Since the fork, a fair bit was moved in a couple weeks. @dalz reviewed the HBD transfers to savings.
All this could ultimately lead to the establishment of commerce taking place on Hive. As outlines in the impact of Hive Backed Dollars, we can see how having a stablecoin could entice merchants to accept it as payment. If they are able to engage in commercial activity while knowing the value of what they are receiving as payment will not fluctuate greatly, they are more apt to engage in it. We are not going to see this with Hive, Bitcoin, Ethereum, or most of the other cryptocurrencies out there. We even have people now questioning the validity of Tether.
This is a grand opportunity for HBD to establish itself.
What Is Lacking
While we are dealing with a small window, the recent range is near the level of acceptability. It certainly is not perfect but a 5% swing either way can be dealt with.
Ideally, of course, we would like to tighten that up. We could be confronted with the situation where some tweaking is required. However, for the moment, it appears that liquidity is the problem. This enters the picture in a couple ways.
To start, liquidity is required for major arbitrage players to enter. Presently, we are sitting on 10 million HBD in existence, with a fair chunk of that in the DAO. It is counterintuitive to think that more HBD is required when the price is on the low side. Logic says more HBD will increase supply, sending the price down.
On this level, that is true. Nevertheless, without the larger players, the peg is tougher to hold. Non-liquid assets always have more volatility, something that is soothed by market growth. Increased liquidity will allow for a greater amount of volume, which entices the bigger fish.
Another reason why liquidity will have to increase is due to the aforementioned commerce. To have a thriving economy, we need to see liquidity in the system. If HBD is going to be the currency used, the supply will have to be greatly expanded.
Here is the breakdown from @dalz's post:
There is a total of 10M HBD supply at the moment, out of which 4.5M HBD in the dev fund, meaning 5.5M HBD in circulation. 3.7M HBD is in the exchanges wallet, that leave us with 1.8M HBD in users account. This means that 800k out of the 1.8M, or almost 50% of the HBD in users accounts was moved to savings in this short period.
There seems to be a bit of disagreement with the HBD in savings since some appears to move out. Thus, the 800K could be wrong, with the number closer to 500K. Either way, there is 1.8 million HBD in user accounts.
In this situation, that isn't going to generate a ton of commercial activity unless the velocity of money is through the roof. A VoM of 5 would still be less than $10 million worth of economic activity.
This is not an issue at the moment since we are not engaging in that activity. However, over time, liquidity will be required if commerce really starts to take off. Fortunately, the community can increase the amount of HBD available as needed. The conversion of Hive ---> HBD allows anyone to "print" HBD as needed.
We can see how this will help the issue for the peg, so it all feeds upon itself.
HBD: A Hidden Gem
It is possible that the Hive Backed Dollar is a hidden gem. The fact it was overlooked for years left a bad taste in people's mouths. Now, however, that attention is being given, the possibilities are mounting.
Here we have the potential of this coin providing a basis for commercial activities on Hive which will, ultimately, increase the value of the entire ecosystem. This will help to push the value of the main coin higher, especially since the percent is coded into the blockchain. As the amount of HBD is expanded to meet the needs of the platform, the value of $HIVE will have to increase to mirror the move. Ultimately, $HIVE is swallowed up to generate HBD.
Thus, if there is reason to produce HBD on a large scale, the value of Hive will be pushed higher simply due to demand. There is no way to escape this outcome.
We will keep an eye on this but HBD could well be on its way to becoming a stablecoin.
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I have decided to keep HBD in savings rather than convert to HIVE or cash out. This is partially because of the 7% interest. Principally, it is to reduce the volatility of my account.
It is also starting to make sense to park additional cash savings in HBD because it is decentralized, like DAI. However, I don't have to worry about ERC-20 fees for transactions. HBD is easily convertible to low-fee coins like Dash, Doge, or LTC for cashing out. This makes it ideal for "banking" my savings.
HBD isn’t a stable coin so just be safe holding a lot. I think we should abolish it. It’s just confusing for new users. It’s not at all pegged to dollar. I really think it’s a negative for our platform. We could do a one time swap for hive or something in a fork. I dunno I just see it as a waste given it’s so much volatility. I’d prefer if we just had a real backed stable coin 🪙
Or just hive and rewards could be half hive power and half hive. Just my opinion
I want pool action!
All valid points.
This is huge. You know what when you go to pull the money out, the transaction fee will be zero. That is a huge advantage to operating on Hive.
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It’s currently under .95 cents. The last thing I’d call it is a stable coin
Some interfaces for tracking the price can be misleading. It's at 0.96-0.97 right now and hbdstabilizer brings it back up to 0.99 in some hours. A good link to track the price on actual exchanges is this: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/hive-dollar/markets/
You can see the hbdstabilizer converting HBD to Hive and buying up HBD here: https://peakd.com/@hbdstabilizer/wallet
(There are inconsistencies between prices shown on Coingecko and the Coinmarketcap link above. The two sites seem to fetch different prices from the Upbit exchange, at least right now. And in general, Upbit prices seem unreliable so we can consider the Bittrex price as the more accurate one.)
I don’t think it will Hold even a bigger window. I’d love to be wrong though!
I’ll be watching 🤟
The next major step for HBD is getting a USD/HBD trading pair listing, The large swings in price are partly due to the only trade pairs being BTC so it BTC price goes down HBD goes with it unless the automated trading bots can adjust quick enough (which they struggle to do)
That would be a great to get that pair. Like all other things, we need to keep building to get to that point.
One of the ways to do that would be for applications to start accepting HBD as payment. Getting a payment system going would be great.
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Fun fact: Dai was suppose to be done via a float mechanism to keep it purely decentralized so Dai would range from like 0.98-1.02.
However in order to appeal and grow more fast, DAI gave up the float and thus became more centralized pegs.
Interesting trade-off. Sad they went that direction although hard to argue with the adoption of DAI.
With HBD we can take the slow, steady approach. We simply need to start developing some use cases.
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Before we had the DHF there pretty much was no use for HBD beyond speculation. The DHF doesn't need HBD to function, DHF could just payout in Hive instead.
There's really no use case for HBD as you can already use DAI for almost 0 fees by using sidechains, and when Ethereum starts rolling out all the huge updates they are doing to turn into POS there will be virtually no fees on layer 1.
I agree 100% I never understood why most don’t see this:
I don't really know either, could just be it was a "given" that we needed it. We also don't need the internal Hive/HBD market either, the only reason that exists is that we need to trade HBD against it to balance it to be stable.
Idk.
Nothing is purely decentralized, especially most cryptocurrencies.
Exactly!
I like the fact that holding HBD has been made even attractive because before it felt like useless, it wasn't Stable and this didn't allow it to have a use case, but how, as a stable coin one can convert their hive into HBD and keep it in the savings. It's still early days, I'll be looking for how long we can maintain this stability.
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I don’t see it. It’s not pegged at all. Could be .60 cents again one day. It’s gambling. I think Hive itself will use be better off with a real stable coin or just use Hive only going forward. Just my take
Cheers 🍻 bud
Well, let's see how stable it's going to stay, I guess time will tell and then, there will be more hardfork going forward who knows, one or two things can still be done
The interesting thing will be the different applications that start to adopt it. We will see how long until some start to target it as a useful payment mechanism.
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As a useful payment mechanicism, the use case will triple by all means, so much potentials for HBD.
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Nothing much to say but thank you for his breakdown of HBD currently!
I'm waiting for HIVE to go back to $1 to exchange everything for HBD.
That would be a sound move, especially if you do not believe that Hive has much of an upside passed $1.
In that case, take your profits from speculation and roll them into HBD to move it towards safety.
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definitely an improvement after HF25, but the real test comes when the big market moves start again.
Yup. It’s got no real peg. If we see a crypto crash we’ll see .80s for sure snd lower likely. Same other way. I mean seeing it here at .94 cents right this moment well there goes ur interest if u bought at a buck. I just think it’s pointless since it’s not a actual stable coin. I wish we’d fork and just turn it into Hive as a one time thing.
I think that is going to be a test. If we see the bull take over, does the peg hold on the upside or do we see HBD pump?
I guess if it does moon, a lot of us who have it in savings can sell which will push the price down.
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Remember, there is now the opportunity to convert Hive to HBD and sell the HBD so everyone can quickly start converting and selling at a profit which should quickly push HBD the price down.
That is very true. We are now seeing the ability to offset price moves on both sides.
We didnt have that before. Arbitrage can help to offset what the price action is doing.
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Ever since you made me pay attention to the interest I get from just holding HBD, I've been intrigued by it. It's rewarding, to say the least. And although it's been fluctuating between $0.95 and $1, I still consider it to be a stablecoin.
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We will have to see how things unfold over the next few months. With more liquidity, we could see the range close down a bit.
Either way, we are dealing with something much better than it was before. If it is a stablecoin at this point; we are moving in that direction.
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With 7% interest moving HBD into savings is very attractive. I started doing this with some of my rewards sometime in the last two months. I was very happily surprised by the interest earned.
In short, I intend to continue to increase my savings account.
The added bonus is that HBD just might become a truly viable stable coin for commerce especially in those areas of the world where fiat currencies are becoming unstable.
Wait, now that I think about all the fiat currencies around the world are becoming unstable.
The big key is the fixed income market. That pays like crap. Could we see something like HBD step up as a viable alternative to that.
That is the real boom for DeFi and crypto. Try to pry the fixed income money out.
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Exactly! I have not seen 7% interest on a savings account in decades. And now that HBD is a little more stable, it becomes very attractive. My wife and I laughed at the fact that in a few months I had earned more money on 5 HBD then we earned on several thousands of dollars in our Money Market account.
Crazy times.
More stable? How so?
The hard fork was designed to prevent the wild swings shown on this chart. At one point HBD rose to $2.40. The range of fluctuation should narrow down significantly if the hard fork corrected this problem.
Besides the USA government is going to start going after “dollar coins “
It’s just confusing. I think it will hurt us not help long term.
It doesn’t do enough. I’m just telling the truth. It’s not stable. Going from 100% plus moves to 7% isn’t making it a stable coin. It needs to be .99-1.01 or bust. But also there’s no backing to it and the process to control volatility hasn’t been tested much at all. It’s been weeks. I love this place so I’m definitely not bashing Hive platform🤟
But I am calling it like I see it. HBD like steem b4 it isn’t stable and hasn’t been yet any given week. New users are t going to care if it’s said we’ll used to be way worse so don’t worry it’s down 8% cause it used to be 80%.
It’s not what it’s supposed to be. And the volatility will get worse again the way it’s structured
I have read several of your comments on this post.
Here is where we agree:
HBD is very confusing to new users. I have been on the chain for four years and only recently have I chosen to put a very small amount into HBD savings. I did this in part because of the offer of 7% interest. I am simply exploring a new area of the chain.
The point of my initial comment was really to laugh about how little I am earning every month in interest in my regular bank account compared to the interest I earned in my HBD savings account. Truthfully, if there is anything I should be worried about imploding it is my FDIC insured bank account.
As to where we disagree, well disagree would be a rather strong word at this point, since I consider HBD to be more of a BETA Test at this point.
As to the current structure of HBD, I defer to your knowledge since I am an old fart who can barely "cut and paste" a meme onto a post and have absolutely no idea about the coding. :)
As to the fact that HBD is not backed by the USD does not really bother me because it would require a 3rd party to hold the assets presumably in a bank this has TETHER writ large. For me at least, all blockchain cryptos are an anti-banking assets. The larger concern would be an implosion of the Federal Reserve Note which HBD is tied to that would concern me the most.
Finally, the goal of establishing a "stable coin" for commerce and fixed income is a goal in my opinion that is worth pursuing.
At the end of the day, we are all living in very strange times. Everything from this point on is either hit or miss. Will this work? Probably not as well as it is hoped but better than expected.
We shall see. If I am wrong . . .
Isn't that the truth. Over the long term, that could really make an impact upon one's financial livelihood.
We simply need a way to onboard money rather inexpensively. This is where having a USD/HBD pair on exchanges would help.
That said, if we can get a lot of cryptocurrency using HBD, then we will really propel this forward.
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That is great
You know I wanted to benefit from this when the price goes below 1 dollar and buy some but I had problem with bittrex and upbit
I hope it could be listed on binance
There is also the internal exchange. You can buy HBD there and have no transaction fees.
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This all sounds very good for Hive. Yet HBD is pegged to a fiat currency which is consistently losing value.
What if there was also a Hive Based Stable Coin based on something other than a fiat currency, something like a "basket" of cost of essential commodities (food, power/fuel, housing cost etc.). Let's call it HBE (Hive Based Essentials Coin). Maybe there would need to be regional coins. Just thinking out loud here. Food for thought.
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It’s not pegged though
To start, HBD is not pegged to fiat currency. It is pegged to Hive. The $1 is a unit of measure.
As for the general ton of your comment, if what you state was a better approach, why isnt Russia one of the leading economies. It has more commodities and natural resources than any other country.
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Log scale chart makes it clear, it is holding the peg better than it ever has in the past since the fork.
Unfortunately that’s not saying much at all. We haven’t generally seen harsh harsh action past weeks overall and I doubt we see this do what it’s supposed. It’s fine from 1.01 to .94 cents in hours yesterday. 6% moves down is huge for something supposed to be stable. If we all claim it’s basically stable because it’s not as bad as past it will not help but hurt us. Newbies will be caught off guard and be confused. Just my take
Cheers friend
It's progress. Things don't always work perfectly immediately, it takes developments that improve at each step. There is no other truly non-custodial stablecoin that has done better (DAI works partially with support of fully custodially backed USDC).
That is true although I would say the bar was set rather low. LOL
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Excellent write-up. I have been following the HBD price closely since the hardfork. It seems to take it a bit of time (some hours) to go back to $0.99 or $1.00 when it fluctuates. I think the hbdstabilizer plays a big role in bringing it back. It does the job but it takes some hours. And fluctuations seem to happen all the time. So I think if we had a faster response with more liquidity, we'd be keeping the peg better.
Maybe there's a number of ways to achieve this, it need not necessarily be dependent upon attracting big players who create a lot of liquidity. More liquidity pools with HBD may help, for example.
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Certainly that would be viable. I would love to see HBD adopted by some LPs to get it in bigger circles.
We also need other use cases.
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Yup, HBD is becoming a token you actually want to hold onto for its real utility. This is a huge step in the right direction for Hive. When I approach companies that I work for in the near future to start paying me in crypto, I am hoping the HBD is stable enough to be my currency of choice.
What utility is that? It’s Not stable at all
It is far more stable than it was, and if this progress continues in the right direction... It will be a stable coin. If it is stable... that will be its utility.
It is but that’s not saying much at all. I’m team Hive and not bashing the platform. Just pointing out it is not even close to any peg. We are comparing it to its own past. It doesn’t make sense. We need to compete with other stable coins that are tied to dollar price. Everyone’s saying it’s so much better then b4 while most stable coins have been exactly tied within a penny or less for years besides maybe a day or moment. Hive isn’t a stable coin platform. HBD is a tool and part of the system here. It’s not needed at all. It’s a bad look to others in crypto space. It’s failed as a dollar peg token.
It’s all love here! I mean no disrespect just disagreeing👍 I can understand why people are passionate but it seems to me this argument is lost based on all data I can see. Again not hive , just talking HBD. If a store improves biz but still is worst in town it’s not a good thing. HBD is not doing what it was meant to and the truth is it’s a really bad look from other people in crypto space. We have plenty of stable coins both centralized and more towards decentralized with less centralization.
I am Hives biggest fan and think it’s best for this platform to be honest and not just cheer something I see is broken. I hope it gets better at being close to dollar but truth is if it can go to .95 cents it can hit .75 also in a major crypto short term crash.
I want us to be the best and HBD isn’t the best. Let’s see what happens next 6 months with it. That said even if it’s a dollar or .99 for a while the 7% interest is less then inflation will be this year. So I just don’t think people who aren’t hardcore into Hive like us will see it the way any replies to me are saying.
Cheers 🍻
And let’s stay in touch and discuss again once we have a few months post the fork👍
You have good points and I agree with you. I also think that we are on route to a stable coin backed by coding / arbitrage behaviour (which I would say is superior to some project that claims to have a vault full of dollars to back it). If HBD can stick to 0.98 - 1.02 like the rest of them, I would call it a win. If it proves to not do that, we may need to look at other options. Judging from the early results, we are not there, but getting a lot closer.
Thanks for diving deep on this one.
.98 - 1.02 like strictly that’s top and bottom I’d agree with ya. I just after seeing how it works don’t trust it will hear that way but I definitely hope it does👍
The events recently mean that Hive Backed Dollar (HBD) is going to have to work a lot harder.
We are seeing the stablecoin market coming under fire.
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A stable HBD is and will be great for the Hive ecosystem. On the grander scale, the 10% max debt ratio might prevent big crypto whales to consider HBD as an option for them. They'd make a too bigger splash. But if the price of Hive keeps growing, things might get better on that front, because 10% of a higher market cap gets higher too. I've also seen some conversation where the increase of the max debt ratio was briefly talked about.
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Certainly. If Hive gets a billion market cap, that is 100 million HBD before the cap kicks in. You are right, if Hive keeps growing, we can see the expansion of HBD continue and provide a great foundation for commerce.
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Only have 200 of it so far. It still falls victim though to massive rallies and sell offs for a few hours just the other day I saw it pump to like $1.20+ so it's not there yet IMO. However I'm saving it right now for the point of 7% interest. Going to be cool when you have 20,000 and earn 3.83 daily. I mean seriously that's a high dividend paying stock right there.
Yeah the 7% payout is very aggressive. It does open it up to the Fixed income market.
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It does look like HBD is maintaining its peg even if there are pumps on HIVE so I think it is doing quite well. I am debating about selling out some HIVE for HBD when prices for HIVE pump and then buy back HIVE for cheaper when it dips back down.
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What peg? No sarcasm , it’s hardly ever between .99 & 1.01…..
I think it just confuses newbies frankly. 7% interest on a coin that has no actual peg is not really worth it unless it’s strictly speculating. I wish we’d get rid of HBD and just use hive or switch to a independent stable coin
There are internal mechanisms to force the price once its below or greater than certain values. I think HBD at least works out on paper but we will have to see.
You can always just convert your HBD into HIVE if you want. There is an open market and a conversion function.
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In its 4.5 year experiment (counting steem days but we can just do hive time period and it’s same thing) I’m just stating the facts. Had never been stable. And now In 2021 most stable coins are backed or have a history of being tied within a penny of dollar. I love hive and this isn’t bashing our platform here. Just going by what I’m seeing. Why would anyone not here already trust HBD? They won’t. If a year goes by and we see it hold I’ll definitely revisit. But I’ve seen again and again HBD And prior SBD just fail totally at being stable. I love hive and love this platform! My comments on HBD are not my feelings of Hive overall. I just think HBD actually has done more harm then good in long run. Great minds can respectfully disagree
I say cheers 🍻 friend. I’ll be watching and hoping you do end up being right👍
That is one way to do it. Of course, just having part of your portfolio as HBD could be a sensible way to spread the returns you are getting.
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While stable coins are "boring" to many, I find them a very interesting option. If you want to "sell high" they give you a place to stash your profits without leaving crypto.
HBD isn’t a stable coin. It’s just it’s name/. I think it’s done more harm frankly. I say fork and turn it into
A pre set amount of hive and split rewards half hive and half hive power. HBD is currently 6% under a dollar. This is what many are calling stable. I think we are all washing our time when we should be focusing on making hive better. If we need a stable coin there should be access to a independent one. But hive would do better without this extra token that’s almost never at dollar value
There is no doubt. Too many are mired in the idea of speculation and mooning. However, it is important to take profits and what do you do with them? HBD will be an ideal "parking" spot before moving onto another investment.
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Then a millionaire person could easily buy the whole supply.
now that would create a serious chaos XD
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Exactly! And it can happen easily
And what would that do? The person might earn 7% which would be great.
So I am not sure why that is a downside. More can simply be created.
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Then we could convert a lot of HIVE to hbd and decrease the circulation of HIVE.
Why though? There’s no real use for HBD. It’s not a stable coin at all. I say we loose it next fork and have it exchanged for hive in a fork
Bingo. The community could alter the supply if desired.
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The supply will expand to meet demand, and any excess they pay is channeled into demand for Hive. That's what the stabilizer does.
HIve is gradually having a lot more commercial value, offering better services than your average bank. As you said, capitalization is the major problem, but the success of HBD's stability in the medium term will not hurt our chances of attracting new investors
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Excellent information, very interesting and thank you for sharing this contribution.
I still think that we should make CDPs on the main chain. The only way to print $HBD is via collateralization, and that would have a tremendous impact on how we do business around here. More utility means more businesses and we shouldn't be dependent on witnesses to regulate this - to such an extent.
I have been putting some in savings pending a payment for a service, but I'm liking the look of the stability more and more, and I'll almost certainly be stacking some in there in the future.
I believe some witnesses are already signalling a 10% rate, and at that point it's looking VERY competitive compared to stables DEFI yields.
I think this development has gone under a lot of people's radars.
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Building a liquidity pool on Polycub along with the increase in the interest rate to 20% are both solid moves. This should help HBD a great deal.
A liquidity pair of $5 million should really help. Then we can start to target new money in a meaningful way.
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