Web 3.0 hasn't really started yet and Hollywood is under fire. Disruption is coming to the entertainment industry in a major way. When Web 3.0 hit, it will only accelerate the demise.
In the past, we discussed how after Web 2.0 takes out Hollywood, it will be Web 3.0 turn. This stems from the fragmentation of the industry that is already taking place.
The net result is Hollywood is in contraction. Some are attributing it to a rough stretch where movie studios lost money on films. There are all kinds of reasons given for that. What is rarely discussed is the destruction of the entire process.
Instead of pointing to minor events, the disruption from technology was going unnoticed. This is not likely to last any longer.
Job Losses Mounting
Do you remember the Hollywood strikes in 2023? Both the writers and actors walked in an effort to get better deals. Part of the dispute was regarding artificial intelligence.
Like most technological threats, known tactics were used in attempt to thwart the threat. It should come as no surprise that it failed.
When it comes to technology, a piece of paper is not going to protect anyone. Yet, many rejoiced at the deal struck by the unions and how well they made out in the negotiations.
That viewpoint is not looking good in hindsight.
Both writers and actors, the two unions that struck, are feeling the pinch. Here are headlines from two stories detailing what is taking place.
It is not even a year since these deals were struck and both parties are having issues. Naturally, those who are at the top of the industry are not having problems. The writers got the movie studios to agree to have more writers on each project. This means the costs went up. Therefore, the tendency is to go with the talent that is proven to produce success.
As the second article details, that is leaving the lower rung out. These people no longer find opportunities.
Many believe this is simply a cycle that people have to weather. The industry will return. Here is where I disagree simply because the industry is not in trouble. Entertainment is doing very well. What is suffering is Hollywood.
Technological disruption tends to cause people to misread what is taking place.
Fragmentation of Attention
The problem for Hollywood is the monopolies it enjoyed are ending. To me, there are two big areas:
- content creation
- content distribution
We covered both of these in the past so we won't go too deep.
The second was started with the Internet. Hollywood (and New York) studios controlled the distribution channels. Individuals or starts ups were not about to compete with the major networks or movie studios. They had the ability to get the content out there they wanted.
YouTube was the first major disruption. This was basically the microcosm of the Internet as a whole. For much of its history, this medium was crushing print media. It was the easier media type to attack. YouTube started the process of shifting video.
Which brings us to the first monopoly: content creation.
Major entities still have a monopoly on this. It is basically impossible for anyone today to make a feature length film of the quality of Warner Bros. The key word here is today.
What YouTube proved is that, over time, the ability to create better quality content expands. As more technological tools become available, people take advantage of this.
A third factor that also should be considered is the idea of "good enough". Here is where the Internet shifted expectations.
For example, with blogs, few expected the quality of a traditional news outlet. That said, while the writing style might have lacked, people were concerned with the information. The article was "good enough" to convey the message.
We saw that with video. Few on YouTube are of the same quality as a major broadcasting outlet. This does not matter as evidenced by the millions of hours of YouTube content consumed daily.
Hence, we saw a massive fragmenting of attention.
The Threat of Web 3.0
Web 3.0 offers something that is even more interesting.
This is not a threat from the usual technology standpoint. What is being created, at least for the moment, is akin to the rest of the Internet. In fact, the next big move is with content creation due to AI more than anything Web 3.0 will do (although AI is a part of it).
Where Web 3.0 will cause a major shift is in the ownership mechanism.
We can already see how users can have stake in both networks and platforms. This means they have financial benefit tied to the success of those ecosystems. This is a radical difference as compared to the Web 2.0 model. It is even a further shift compared to the traditional broadcast television (and movie) model.
The key to the future, like the past, is drawing attention. How does one go about getting the eyeballs? The answer to this question is not going to be resolved like it was in the past.
My view is this will cause an even greater bleed. It will also provide those who are presently involved in Hollywood with different opportunities. Of course, to take advantage, they have to be aware of what is taking place.
What we have is decentralization and distribution. We are seeing the old model decay before our eyes. Even YouTube is having to adapt due to other video platforms showing up on the scene.
Over time, my forecast is Web 3.0 keeps being built out to the point where it is indistinguishable from other digital platforms. However, there is going to be the ownership mechanism which will be known to those involved. This will tend to draw the attention to where people have stake.
Does this mean Hollywood is going to collapse?
No. What we are likely to see is a slow decline. Each aspect will contract as viewers and personnel move elsewhere.
For now, Web 2.0 is the threat. Eventually, Web 3.0 will be the nail in the coffin for Hollywood.
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I'm seeing all these new movies and series coming out in Netflix and streaming platforms that have A-list celebrities. Those weren't usual before, and the most it will happen would have been cameos. Disney+ normalized it a bit with their Marvel series. So if the popular actors are now taking on streaming movies and series, those less popular will get less available roles, and even more those that are just starting. I can definitely see actors' lives getting more difficult moving forward. We haven't even started with AI video yet.
I dont know about this specifically so this could be a trend. However, I think the A list actors will be fine. It is all the auxiliary and character actors. Many of these will be replaced with AI. Even if a big star is in it, the other "actors" my be completely computer generated.
I agree. But I fear that if this continues, once those A-list actors retire, we won't have any left. It will be interesting to see if the popular youtubers replace them eventually.
My guess you end up with AI generated stars.
I guess that's true. Hatsune Miku is very popular and it is just all computer generated.
I am not familiar with that but it doesnt surprise me.
I would say that the 21st century as a whole has been a challenge for Hollywood. The arrival of Youtube, streaming video sites like Amazon Prime, Netflix, and yes, now Web 3.0, it all has meant that Hollywood no longer has the monopoly in the creative world.
Certain things, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) might become a big problem for writers in general all around the World, though.
Also AI will disrupt Hollywood, was playing around with udio recently and did a hive promotion song, would be grateful if you could share, like, reblog it. Thx :)
Ultimately, it all boils down to forward thinking, emphasizing the importance of attention and ownership mechanisms in the evolving digital ecosystem.
While the emergence of web 3.0 leans towards a negative outlook for Hollywood in the long term, it also recognizes the potential for adaptation and evolution in response to these technological shifts.
Companies cannot help but to get disrupted when their stakeholders all have goals that are not in alignment. This is why companies end up following the status quo even as they are in decline. Someone in the process is saying no.
It seems to me that they should learn about what is coming and figure out how to use it to stay in the game. Rejecting new technology hardly ever works out well for those who are rejecting it.
Depends upon who "they" is. Here we see the difference in players with different goals. This is why disruption happens. The existing hold onto what they have while the house is collapsing.
It is high time not only to Hollywood but other endeavors to start adopting web3 as the new normal in the technological fast engulfing world now. When others are thinking of what next after web3, we shouldn't be left behind.
Hollywood, in the traditional sense i.e. the movie studios cannot. Their business model is against it. So is Web2. It is up to the new "breed" to alter the path.
Change is the only constant thing in life, with time that may take place, thanks.
Greetings @taskmaster4450 ,
What an excellent write up and explanation of the situation at hand for Hollywood indeed.
Cheers!
@taskmaster4450!
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