China is the second most populous nation on Earth.
Or so we are told.
Is this really the case? When it comes to numbers, government statistics are rarely 100% accurate. Even if they want to be precise, many of the metrics are derived through surveys, statistical analysis, or outright estimates.
That is, however, a big difference from outright manipulation (lying) about the numbers. When it comes to population, this should not be the case.
Most countries accumulate their population data by conducting actual counts. In the US, this is called the Census and it is done every 10 years. Many other countries have something similar.
The question is what is the CCP putting out? Are they accurate with their numbers?
China's Population - Decline Or Myth
A number of demographers question the validity of the claims that China has 1.3 or 1.4 billion people. Some are asserting this true numbers are much less.
Let us dig into some ideas that are leading people to this conclusion.
One of the biggest factors in this discussion regarding China is the one child policy. This was started in 1979 and went through 2015. The challenge is that Chinese couples did not increase their birthrates.
Hence, we are looking at more than a total generation of people who lived in this environment. Simple math shows us what the impact is.
According to the U.N., the fertility rate for China in 2024 was 1.01.
Replacement rate is considered 2.1. This means that China is far below the level required to maintain its population. The 2024 figure is not unique, although it is lower than historical norms.
Over the last 20 years, China had a fertility rate that was around 1.5 births per woman. Since COVID, that number has dropped a great deal.
If the trend continues in 2025, the rate will be sub 1.00.
Wikipedia
This is what the census looks like from 2020. Was it a fabrication?
Where Are The People
Many question the official story about COVID and its impact upon China. It is not hard to find videos on Youtube with people inside the country asking where are all the people.
It seems that since 2022, things have cleared out of major cities. We see people filming shopping malls or streets which were filled with people just a few years ago.
Now, they are mostly empty. This led many to question the official stats regarding COVID. If the country lost 100 million or more due to deaths, that would have a huge impact.
Then we have the light test.
Some have taken a look at the lights illuminated at night. This is visible via satellite images. By taking the presumed population, it is possible to determine how much lighting there should be. For those who study this, it is vastly under what would be expected.
True Numbers
It is hard to ascertain what the true numbers are.
The CCP did come out and state that it had overstated the population by 100 million. My guess is if they cop to 100M, we can presume 250M or 300M is more likely.
Some who dig into the data believe the true number is closer to 800 million. This would seriously hinder China as a global player as it tried to evolve its economy into one based upon consumption. Even without a lower population versus the stated, we have serious issues there as children are not being born. Anyone with kids knows they are massive consumers, always needing something.
Obviously, it is in the best interest of the CCP to keep the facade going. They need to convince the world they are a global player and battling the United States for supremacy.
Demographics are crucial to this end. What are the true numbers? We are not likely to know until there is a noticeable decline. Are we at that point?
Some on Youtube believe we are.
Posted Using INLEO
On a tangent, China suffers from the same problem the USA and Europe does, which is being run by geniuses who use their full talent to make bad decisions. They thought the one child policy was a good idea. They also thought that being aggressive with their neighbors would show dominance, not realizing that they would need them one day. They once lost out big when they refused to adopt the gold standard, maintaining the silver standard they already had. Now that things are moving crypto, they're hoarding gold. And they thought they could sell their surplus goods to other countries, which are already buying what they can afford and don't want to flood their own markets with cheap goods that would destroy their own industries.
Of course, China doesn't have a monopoly on geniuses. There are more born every day around the world.
"Interesting take! The points raised make you wonder—could China's real population numbers be so different from what's reported? The impact of policies like the one-child rule really adds weight. Thought-provoking read!"
I personally believe the best option that china have took is the best in a way to control their population growth actually
100m people lost in the covid? thats a huge loss as you said
I find your skepticism about China's population numbers intriguing. The one-child policy's impact and the fertility rate below replacement level make sense to me. The empty cities and lighting test observations are interesting too. I'm wondering if the true numbers are lower than reported.