China could be facing some serious economic challenges ahead. This is due, in large part, to the fact their population is getting older.
In this video I discuss how there is a belief that the Chinese population is now in decline. It is hard to get accurate numbers from the CCP so we have to be careful. For that reason, many are expecting the possibility that we could see massive economic headwinds for that country as they age rather quickly.
▶️ 3Speak
Isn't the population for most countries around the world peaking? After all the population growth is starting to decline quite a bit so I think it would be true anywhere. Also, I recall hearing a lot of news about the buildings being made being empty already as it is. So I don't think their real estate market will do well.
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Personally I find the decline in birth rate to be a good thing long term, and in fact I think the goal should be for zero or even NEGATIVE global growth. If we can achieve this, it will finally (eventually) give an opportunity for housing to be more affordable again with the slowdown in new construction and more inventory coming onto the market as people pass away. Imagine a world where houses go on the market and you can walk right in and purchase a property without even bidding against anyone else. A world where there is always plenty of vacancy, and prices must be competitive.
People have debt for 30 years now just to buy a small house these days, that is insane. And if the population continues to increase, the problem will only get worse.
Although it would also be a huge help if people stopped crowding together in a small handful of cities that is a tiny % of the city too.
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The problem with housing is that most of it tends to be the rich man's game right now. From what I have seen, even hedge funds are starting to buy in so I wonder if ownership of a home wouldn't be overpriced and that would result in most people renting. The rent could still be cheap but the property's value makes it a worthwhile investment for the rich.
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I dont think the price of housing has anything to do with the population per se. It is rather a matter of where the population grows. There is plenty of land. The challenge is we have seen decades of migration from rural to urban areas. That means we all packed into a small landmass as opposed to being spread out.
In the US, for example, most people live within a 70 mile radius of a major city. The urban sprawl is such that the cities start to link up.
This is a result of the monopoly on good paying jobs. It is going to reverse as the remote work situation changes the entire geographic dynamic.
So it isnt a matter of the number of people, it is the fact we are trying to pack them all into small areas.
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Yes many of the developed countries are peaking. We are also seeing a slowing in the growth rate across the developing world slowing. This is what happens when countries evolve economically.
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I'm so old that I remember when OVERpopulation was considered to be a big problem .
You say we can't trust China's numbers? Can we trust the UN's? (or any country?) How likely is it that the world population numbers are correct?
It is true about most numbers. However, if you read the reports, like from the USG, you can usually get a sense of the trend. Yes you might have to chart it based upon seasonally adjusted (or non) numbers since they often flip flop them in the headline. For the most part, one number doesnt matter but the trend.
As for overpopulation, it was the belief 10 years ago. YouTube is full of doomsdayers who were proclaiming we are all going to starve. That might be true but not due to overpopulation but the fact the major food producer just went to war with another and the West decided they dont want anything from there.
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Russia has half our population and one fifth our GNP. I remember when every year there was a report of 'unusually poor grain harvest' in Russia and the US had to 'sell'(give) them grain so that they could survive. I suppose they overcome that minor difficulty?
regarding reports from any governmental agency. I've noticed that they tend to be backdated in order to bolster the argument of those who are in power.
problems with the aging of the population if in China that is what is left over people, but well a small oversight and many problems are coming
Yes the video is straight forward, am agreed with you that they will facing serious economic challenge because there population is too much.
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Thank you. Glad you find it to be a reasonable path.
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This is quite surprising if they are going to face economic challenges ahead because the population have been there long time ago so I wonder how the scenario is going to take place with the effect
It is hard to overcome demographics. That much we know. It will not hit them overnight since there are so many people. However, as we get into the 2030s, things could really start to hit them in the face.
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Summary:
In this video, Task discusses the potential economic implications of China's aging population and declining birth rates, highlighting the challenges it could pose to the country's economy. He mentions the uncertainty around China's demographic numbers, speculates on reasons for the decline in births, and explains how an aging population can impact economic productivity. Task also touches upon the situation with Evergrande in China and compares China's ability to manage such crises with that of Western governments. He emphasizes the importance of demographics in shaping a country's economic future and briefly mentions Russia's demographic challenges as well.
Detailed Article:
Task's macro moment video delves into the demographic challenges facing China and the potential economic consequences. He starts by discussing suspicions around China's census numbers, pointing out that the country's fertility rate may be lower than reported and that deaths in 2021 could have spiked, potentially due to COVID-19. Task explains how an aging population can lead to a decrease in economic productivity, as older individuals tend to rely more on social services and decrease their spending.
The video touches on China's fast-aging population and the projection that the country's population could peak and then decline significantly by 2060 or 2070, which would have major economic repercussions. Task draws parallels with the decline in population seen in countries like Italy, where rural areas are particularly affected by an aging population, leading to businesses failing and real estate values plummeting.
Task then shifts the focus to Evergrande, a Chinese real estate company facing financial troubles. He notes that while the Chinese government has more control over capital deployment and can intervene to stabilize companies like Evergrande, the oversupply of real estate due to speculative investments poses a long-term economic challenge, especially as the population declines.
The discussion underscores the interconnectedness of demographics and economic growth, highlighting how a diminishing population can strain the economy and impact citizens' wealth tied up in property investments. Task emphasizes the importance of monitoring China's demographic trends as they could have significant implications for the country's economic future. He also briefly mentions Russia's own demographic challenges, demonstrating the broader relevance of demographic factors in shaping global economic landscapes.
In conclusion, Task stresses the significance of demographic trends in assessing economic stability, particularly in the context of major economies like China and Russia. The video offers valuable insights into the potential economic outcomes of demographic shifts and highlights the need for careful observation of these trends for informed economic analysis.