The Fed's balance sheet is flat and they laid out a plan to unwind. It is going to start, I believe, with $30 billion per month.
You are right there are other things. However, politicians tend to listen to the Economists who simply spew the same misguided nonsense.
In the end, we are seeing the demand destruction start in discretionary spending. Both Target and Walmart reported the same thing; higher costs of necessities means that other products, higher margin, were bypassed.
Target took a 25% hit in its stock price.
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Data point confirming this: Last year I did some GrubHub driving when the pay got really high, so I belong to the Facebook groups even though I don't do it anymore. This past weekend everyone was complaining that it was dead. Like falling off a cliff dead, all over the country. These delivery services are a luxury item that average people use, so I think it's a decent bellwether for general consumer sentiment. Spiking fuel prices are probably at the top of the list of whys. I remember after hurricane Katrina, higher fuel prices from the collapse in refinery capacity seemed to be one catalyst that started the cracks to form that ultimately led to the mortgage implosion. When you're on the edge financially, that one cost variation can throw your whole life into chaos. If you have the choice between paying for food and gasoline to get to work, or paying your mortgage, which are you going to do? You're going to buy food and gas of course and tell the bank to shove it. This seems to be happening again, and we already had astronomical food prices beforehand. How many months of default before we see a rise in foreclosures and panic starts to set into the general financial markets? Took a few years last time, but I think it happens quicker this time because of the magnitude of the supply chain issues. They are legion when compared to the Katrina fuel supply issues and they've been ongoing for a couple years now. This is just pouring gasoline on that raging inferno.