The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed in December is currently reported at 69.6%.
According to the "FedWatch" data from CME on November 12th, there is a 69.6% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, and a 30.4% probability that the rates will remain unchanged.
Confirming the CME FedWatch Tool data as of Nov 12: 69.6% odds for a 25bp cut to 4.00-4.25% range in December, with 30.4% chance of no change. Markets pricing in cooling inflation signals
It seems like politics are now entering the Fed. The Fed should cut and hard right now.
Fed's independence is key but political noise is ramping up post-election - Powell's hinted at data-driven moves only. Latest CME data holds at 69.6% for that Dec 25bp cut amid softening jobs report