Even people who expect human-level AI soon are still seriously underestimating how different the world will look when we have it. Most people are anchoring on how smart they expect individual models to be. (i.e. they’re asking themselves “What would the world be like if everyone had a very smart assistant who could work 24/7?”.)
Everyone is sleeping on the collective advantages AIs will have, which have nothing to do with raw IQ but rather with the fact that they are digital—they can be copied, distilled, merged, scaled, and evolved in ways human simply can’t.
What would a fully automated company look like - with all the workers, all the managers as AIs? I claim that such AI firms will grow, coordinate, improve, and be selected-for at unprecedented speed.
Currently, firms are extremely bottlenecked in hiring and training talent. But if your talent is an AI, you can copy it a stupid number of times. What if Google had a million AI software engineers? Not untrained amorphous "workers," but the AGI equivalents of Jeff Dean and Noam Shazeer, with all their skills, judgment, and tacit knowledge intact.
This ability to turn capital into compute and compute into equivalents of your top talent is a fundamental transformation. Since you can amortize the training cost across thousands of copies, you could sensibly give these AIs ever-deeper expertise - PhDs in every relevant field, decades of business case studies, intimate knowledge of every system and codebase the company relies on.
I think you have to look at the difference between a human firm and a fully automated one.
Even people who expect human-level AI soon are still seriously underestimating how different the world will look when we have it. Most people are anchoring on how smart they expect individual models to be. (i.e. they’re asking themselves “What would the world be like if everyone had a very smart assistant who could work 24/7?”.)
Everyone is sleeping on the collective advantages AIs will have, which have nothing to do with raw IQ but rather with the fact that they are digital—they can be copied, distilled, merged, scaled, and evolved in ways human simply can’t.
What would a fully automated company look like - with all the workers, all the managers as AIs? I claim that such AI firms will grow, coordinate, improve, and be selected-for at unprecedented speed.
Currently, firms are extremely bottlenecked in hiring and training talent. But if your talent is an AI, you can copy it a stupid number of times. What if Google had a million AI software engineers? Not untrained amorphous "workers," but the AGI equivalents of Jeff Dean and Noam Shazeer, with all their skills, judgment, and tacit knowledge intact.
This ability to turn capital into compute and compute into equivalents of your top talent is a fundamental transformation. Since you can amortize the training cost across thousands of copies, you could sensibly give these AIs ever-deeper expertise - PhDs in every relevant field, decades of business case studies, intimate knowledge of every system and codebase the company relies on.