From Reddit:
The power grid will need to change, or the future will be dark
Energy
Not being alarmist or “doomer” as was complained about recently. But it’s only a matter of time before another coronal mass ejection (CME), aka solar storm, the level of the 1859 Carrington Event occurs. In 1859 it caused a few fires at telegraph offices, but in the modern age a very strong CME would destroy power grids.
A CME send billions of tons of charged plasma from the sun. When it interacts with the Earth’s magnetic field, it creates geomagnetically induced current (GIC) that collects on miles long conductors, like power lines. This DC-like GIC on an AC system can cause overheating in high-voltage transformers on the transmission system. The heat can damage or destroy these essentially irreplaceable transformers (since they take years to make).
There are methods to “harden” the power grid to GIC, and organizations such as the Department of Energy (DOE) are working on it (example: https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1684647). This isn’t cheap, but is the most promising area.
It might be possible to install more isolation transformers in the existing grid. Another possible solution would be microgrids that don’t have long-haul lines, so would not be susceptible to GIC.
A nuclear EMP can do the same thing to the grid, and more, but overall seems less likely than a regularly occurring solar event we know will happen again. We just can’t predict when.
Either way, changes to the power grid will need to occur if we are to ensure it’s survival.
I dont like it when folks compare solar flares to EMPs. Because while the physics are similar, its just two totally different animals to prepare against.
We have had the transmission grid running since 1950's and other than a single incident in 1989, where 6 million canadians lost power for 9 hours due to a solar flare, the rest have basically been dealt with without much issue. They dont even make the news. I am pretty sure 2022 was one of the worst solar events in US history and nothing really happened (except a bunch of Starlinks satelites got crispy, planes were grounded for a couple hours, and GPS was down for a few minutes.)
It’s essential to understand how EMPs (electromagnetic pulses) and solar flares can impact the electrical grid. Electricity is generated by moving a conductor through a magnetic field: either spinning a conductor within a stable magnetic field or spinning a magnetic field around a conductor.
do they still take years to make even after all the advancement in engineering 😳 and are we really going to start messing with dark energy
With solar flares, the Sun emits a magnetic field that interacts with Earth, affecting our grid. The grid’s transmission lines act as the conductor, moving through this magnetic field due to Earth’s rotation. While the field itself isn’t very strong, the combined length of east-west transmission lines creates significant power as the Earth turns. Shorter, non-east-west-oriented distribution lines are generally unaffected. Consumer products and microchips are unaffected. By predicting the timing and location of these power surges, we can install simple fuse-based switches and voltage filters along transmission lines, especially near costly, hard-to-replace equipment. During solar flare events, these switches can open briefly to ground the energy safely. Once the event passes, the switches close, fuses are replaced, and the grid resumes normal operation. This was figured out in the 90's and we have had dozens of events since.
EMP hardening, however, is almost impossible. In an EMP, the pulse is targeted and passes through the conductive material (versus the conductor moving through the feild). The grid is too vast and conductive to insulate everything effectively, and EMPs are unpredictable in timing and location. EMPs can be particularly damaging to small, sensitive components, like microchips. A strong enough EMP could damage a substation transformer, though simpler threats like vandalism with firearms currently pose a bigger risk to transformers, which lack sufficient protection. So we can't harden substations to these kinds of attacks just like we can't harden them to basically any sort of direct assult. Our grid just isn't and can't be nuke proof, bullet proof, etc. Hell, they are not even squirrel proof.
Despite that, the same measures are being taken to limit solar flare damage also prevents EMP damage on a large scale. The approach is to design the grid with “break points” that absorb voltage surges. Many components are already built to “break” first, sacrificing themselves to protect more critical equipment. Now, we are adding cheaper, more breakable, and easier to replace elements to the grid. We are doing this anyways as we hae to manage voltage spikes from our changing power needs (renewable energy and EV charging being biggies).
In the event of a hypothetical attack—like two nuclear detonations above the U.S. to take down the grid—the damage might not be as extensive or irreparable as feared. Substations directly under the EMP’s pulse could be heavily damaged, but the rest of the grid might recover quickly, mostly by just replacing blown fuses and filters. That said, substation transformers that sustained severe damage would take longer to repair or replace. Those are big, heavy, expensive devices and we do not have a lot spares.
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And for folks saying this is someting no one is paying attention to. That is not the case. US DOD, DOE, DHS, NSA, FAA, and DOI all have programs looking at this seriously for at least 20 years. There are a number of transmission working groups trying to figure out the best place to put breakables, transformer makers are looking at increased shielding with new alloys and painted on coatings in certain key points. DOD has a purchasing guildines and Milspec transformers, DOE has financial assistance programs and testing sites, DOI and DHS track solar flares and send guidance to transmission operators. But most of the answers here are really boring so they dont get much publicity as we are talking about fuses, paint, operational resiliency best practices.
source: been in the energy biz for 20 years and currently work at a utility managing power supply. So, not an engineer or a lineman with direct operational experience. Ive just been around this stuff for a long time
My buddy in the energy field has the same response whenever this kind of article comes out.
"What makes you think that this article writer is the first person to have noticed this problem, and what do you think I do all day when I'm working to ensure you have power when you turn on the switch? We're always looking at what will go wrong, and preparing for when it does."
Even when Texas had the huge issues they did in 2021, the grid survived, and severe weather events impacting grid stability are more likely than both CMEs and EMPs.
Plus, it's amazing how undefended our energy infrastructure is against physical attacks, not just malicious actors. I've heard plenty of stories about the challenges related to squirrel-proofing substations.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought if we just shut parts of the grid down before and during when the CME hits the earth, the grid wouldn't be overwhelmed and would power back up after the CME without issues.
I work with a lot of power utilities. The number of them that have devoted true resources to EMP hardening the grid is near 0. Duke, Centerpoint, and a handful of others are about it.
I had a conversation with a guy who ran an aerospace concern. Their focus was flying polar sensors that would give utilities warning in events like this.
We are more exposed than ever but we know more than ever now and are endeavoring to know more each day.
This capability already exists to protect satellites, which are far less accessable and far more exposed than any part of the power grid but efforts are underway to improve warning time.
No, we don't. It's simple economics. Can you build a grid that can withstand a CME? Sure. The cost would be stupendously stupid. For an event that might happen....once in a lifetime? It isn't worth it.
Also, whose grid are we trying to save? The north american grid can be repaired within a reasonable period of time. India...not so much.
t's terrifyingly easy to take down a national grid and the fact that no one's done it shows how few people are aware of how easy it is. EVERYWHERE is vulnerable.
The power grids everywhere need many different upgrades for different reasons. But guess what: no one wants to pay for them - no one being the customers/users in this case, because one way (by paying it directly) or the other (via taxes), users will have to pay for it.
But if you try raising prices, the mob will walk in your direction in an instant.
Wouldn't they disconnect the transformers from the lines if a carrington level event was coming so they don't get fried? Seems like pretty common sense stuff
They can and do for solar flares. Problem with EMPs is that the magnetic pulse is, in theory, strong enough to generate enough power via the coils inside the transformer to blow the transformer up.
Then again, if folks are dropping nukes on us...does it matter all that much at that point?
My man, I mean - odds are Russia and USA EMP themselves and half the world sooner than a major coronal ejection.
Nah, its just fear mongering. The future will not be dark. They are aware of the potential, and the worst case scenario is max dark for a couple of weeks. OP just thinks they know something everyone else doesn't.
didju ever think that nobody cares and everyone is waiting around for it to happen so the entire infrastructure can be rebuilt and upgraded?