For now, predicting the exact timing of the spacecraft’s reentry remains difficult. Marco Langbroek estimates it could occur around May 10, though the forecast will become more accurate as the date approaches. The uncertainty is largely due to heightened solar activity — the Sun’s current active phase is heating and expanding Earth’s atmosphere, increasing atmospheric drag and causing orbiting objects to lose altitude more quickly.
It’s equally challenging to predict where any surviving debris might land. The location will depend on the precise moment the spacecraft reenters and starts to break apart.
Typically, the risk to populated areas is low, with debris more likely to fall into remote regions of the ocean. Due to its robust construction, if it lands on solid ground, it could provide valuable insights into the durability of spacecraft materials after prolonged exposure to space.
However, even though the risk is small, uncontrolled reentries are never entirely without danger.