50-50 Chance of Recession This Year: Larry Summers
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers sees a 50-50 chance of a recession in 2025 due to President Trump’s tariffs, immigration policies and federal government layoffs.
“I’d say there’s a 50-50 chance of a recession starting this year,” Summers told Bloomberg. “When economic revisions start being revised in a direction, there tends to be momentum, and all the revisions are going one way, pointing towards less growth and real uncertainty.”
The steep decline in the stock market and erosion of consumer confidence are also indicators of a possible recession, said Summers, who was Treasury Secretary during the Clinton administration and served as White House Economic Council director under Obama.