20 years fits with Kurzweils prognosis of a singularity, but it’s conservative as it extrapolates past progress into the future, which was based on humans using technology to built better technology. In other words it’s an extrapolation that assumes static human intellect as driving force with the exponential being based on the feedback loop of tools being used to built better tools. Once AGI arrives and thus recursive self improved, it’s likely that the exponent gets a lot larger, as at least one additional order of exponential growing starts that interacts with the already existing one. It’s not just increases in absolute intelligence in AGI, and the use of surrogate models like alphafold to shift the heavy lifting of experimentation from physical to digital space.
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