Newcastle coal futures fell to $101 per tonne, returning toward the near four-year low of $99 from February 28th as selected output curbs were not enough to outweigh the view that thermal coal is increasingly oversupplied. China announced that its output is set to expand 1.5% to 4.82 billion tons in 2025 following a record-setting 2024, aiming to expand mining capacity to avoid availability risks from carbon emission limits and mine shutdowns for safety protocol breaches. The development occurred as utilities already deal with record-high coal inventories, which rose by 12% in the two months ending October. Also, Indonesian output rose to a record high 836 million tonnes in 2024, 18% above its target, while the country’s increasing investment in alternative power sources limited the outlook for coal demand. Consequently, Glencore noted that multiple Australian coal producers, which especially impact the Newcastle grade, were considering shitting down as lower prices reduce margins.
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