The subject of AI brings out two camps: one that believes it will bring utopia to society or those who feel that all will be dystopian. The reality is neither is correct.
In this video we discuss how AGI does not appear to be in our future for at least decades. That said, there will be a massive paradigm shift in business due to what we are creating. This will end up affecting labor, manufacturing, and real estate.
▶️ 3Speak
every paradigm shift sometimes affects many aspects of our lives and this should not be the exception. What we must have is to have a broad mind before innovating ideas
While I agree with your general assessment that true AGI is a ways off. I think your view of what is currently possible is off kilter though.
Let's look at DALL-E 2 at first glance it just a painting/art AI. But its ability to recognize different objects and more importantly combine multiple objects into a coherent design is pretty staggering. It's not the one trick recognition pony you are talking about. If allowed to expand into non art work I am sure it would quickly identify the important data/objects.
The Chinchilla AI on the other hand shows us the you can get better results with an order of magnitude fewer data points if the AI is full/correctly trained. This and GPT3 already outperform most high school students at writing tasks.
Okay, last thing. It doesn't taking AGI to devastate the population just 10x better/cheaper than a human would be in the economy and we are awfully close to that already.