If you haven't heard, the robots are coming.
We are going to see massive changes over the next 5 years. This is something that is going to shake society to its core. A lot of different reactions will result.
There are going to be many Luddites, people who attack the robots, either humanoids or autonomous vehicles. It will be humorous on one hand but does show much deeper issues. This is not something that is going to be resolved easily.
We have a lot of reason for excitement. This is also, some cause for concern. We will leave aside the military aspect of things since that introduces another level to the discussion (human psychopaths). However, there is still a lot to dig into.
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Massive Societal Shift Due To Robotics
Most of what we know about society is going to change. This will affect everything from labor, legal, manufacturing, economics, and entertainment. Very little is going to be the same in a decade.
This might seem a bit over the top yet, considering the pace things are going, it is highly likely.
To start, by 2035, we will likely have a billion robots in operation. This might not be all humanoid but they will be in every aspect of the manufacturing process. We also could see transportation shifted to the point where a significant portion, if not the majority, of miles driven is done autonomously.
What happens when we have a product that has a TAM (total addressable market) of basically unlimited? How much do things change when the cost of labor, in the majority of instances, is either at, or near, zero?
This is something we never really saw before.
Also, unlike outsourcing, we can see how these transitions will happen locally. Here is where some problems arise.
From a labor perspective, there are a couple of issues. First, the local market is decimated, much in the same way with outsourcing, yet the products are still made locally.
The second challenge is when countries start to move their production back onshore. This could affect many developing countries that did enjoy the advantage due to their reduced labor costs.
How are we going to deal with this?
Naturally, there are many discussions ongoing, few of which have much validity to them. Nevertheless, we can expect the governments to do something since they will have to remain relevant.
As an aside, do not think for a second that governments will not be threatened by technology. It will be a slower process but they are rapidly becoming obsolete also.
Progress After Pain
The Luddites serve as a lesson for everyone.
In the long run, technology brings about advancement. While there are some negatives, society is better off. For example, email was a fantastic addition to society. The downside is spam and the ability to scam people. However, in spite of that, few would demand a time when email was not used.
That said, things are rarely smooth. The Luddites also show how progress does not mean there are not those who end up suffering. All those who had stock in radio Shack are still licking their wounds after Amazon crushed that business.
It is likely we see a lot of people who make their living off driving end up being replaced. The same is true for many office positions.
Many question whether this time is different. In my mind, it is.
What really stands out is the pace of innovation. This is natural since we are operating at a much higher level than we did a few decades back. There is also more digitized which runs at a much faster pace. The world of atoms is still slow.
Here is where robots enter. While they are physical, they are meant to replace people. The humanoid form is no mistake. This is being adopted because the world we created was made for humans. Here we see the artificial mirroring what humans are.
Even if the robots aren't up to scale of humans to start, there are advantages. Leaving aside the gap is probably closed quickly, robots can make up for being slower by time spent working. There is no issue running a bot 20 hours per day. This can be done 365 days a year.
What ends up happening is the scaling of these operations is enhanced not only through the improved performance of the robots but by adding more. companies will have to play with the pricing yet it appears the likely model is some type of monthly rental.
If the upfront cost is eliminated, this would cause the spread to be much quicker. CAPEX is difficult for many companies, especially smaller ones.
What Do Humans Do?
This is the other question that arises. It will come in many forms but it is always the same.
What are humans going to do? How will they find meaning?
Ultimately, this is going to come down to the individual. Many seem to feel that humans derive their worth from work. According to many studies, more than 3/4 of the working population in developed countries hates their jobs. Thus, I find it hard to believe their meaning comes from that.
The reality is most people toil, exchanging their time for a paycheck and that is it.
For this reason, I am not sure it is too big a shift, at least from the meaning perspective. People will find a way to occupy themselves. The question is what draws their focus?
Whatever the challenges, it is time that people start accepting what is coming. Most of us are aware of the progress the chatbots are making. That is only the first phase. These are going to be integrated into robots (and autonomous cars).
When this occurs, we will have two technologies operating within the same product, advancing at an exponential rate. As the robot physically improves, it will be enhanced by the advancement of the software.
The door is now open. We will see what walks through.
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If they come then there would be gradually increase in number of unemployment then what people will do?.
I have noticed even I live in Pakistan and people are noticing these trends and are trying to opt for data science and machine learning for pursuing their careers so may be there will be a huge shift in people's preference of careers after AI take most of their jobs to people opting for AI, Automation, machine learning etc as their field of work perhaps.
Still not all ppl are educated and talented
Yes but just like people used to see health as a viable profession they have started to notice the same thing with AI these days.
That is the challenge people will have. How are we going to adapt to a completely new economy?
I'd like to think that robots can help with the declining birth rates. Most of the medical field probably won't be touched, but I can see robots slowly helping in the home care, and in moving patients. One positive possibility is that robots can take over a lot of chores in the house, and parents can focus on work and their children.
The first wave will be in this industries where there is a lack of workers. However, if we look at millions being displaced, this could stack up quickly.
Manufacturing is likely the first area we see a massive thrust. Those who work in those industries could be hit first.
With how slow the government is to adjust to changes, it will be interesting to see how they plan on reacting to a disruption of that speed and magnitude. There will be a lot of people losing jobs, will they release relief packages again?
There is a need for humans to go diversified. As it stands, one needs to keep a closer look on tech and how to take necessary advantage even in investment. Staying to doubt the upcoming system of robots will be waiting for doom when it fully surfaces.
I think the next evolution in technology will start when there are some how prototypes of Drones that are machine driven and not human commanded some how.
That could be. A lot going on with drones and the potential there.
So many directions all of this is going.
impressive, the world will indeed change
It will happen within 5 years. We will see factories heavily utilizing humanoid robots by the end of the decade.
With the way the world of robotics is actually fast developing, I am beginning to see the future world taking over the world of robots in the future actually