There is a lot of discussion about the tariff war taking place between the United States and China. Both sides are escalating things.
The latest round is the US pushing the rate to 245%.
Before diving into this situation, let's make a few things clear. To start, 10% is a tariff. Anything above this moves into "there is a problem, we need to talk". When you get 145%, let alone 245%, that is not a tariff; it is a full blown trade embargo.
The situation is such that both the United States and China effectively parked their navies in the Pacific, placing a blockage. At 245% and 84%, nothing is going to move.
Here is the position both countries have taken for the moment.
Trump And China: Is It Really About Trade?
The tariff situation, termed retaliatory, pulled countries to the tables. Dozens are lining up to negotiate a different deal.
To me, this is part of the nothing burger although the media is all over it. Deals will be struck over time, at least on the tariff front. After that, down the road, things such as VATs, port delays, and other tactics used to restrict trade will be addressed.
China is the elephant in the room. So what is going on there?
Here is where we have to question the level this is being approached. Are we talking about trade or something else?
To be clear, arrows will hit their mark. Both sides are going to suffer. The question is whether the goal of the Trump is to get a trade deal or to cause China damage.
We could be watching a situation where the economy is the first in a line of dominoes. After this, unemployment escalates, potentially causing civil disorder. After that, we could see political instability ensue.
I cannot say this is the goal but one way to stymie the CCP is to force its focus inward. Its biggest fear is revolution. When people are hungry, they have nothing to lose.
One conclusion that I think is valid is that people are waking up to the fallacy that was put forth by a number of Presidents. Going back to Clinton, who pushed for China to enter the WTO, the idea was that if China's economy was built up, eventually they would embrace the western ideals.
Sorry, but that was nonsense. It turns out the CCP, despite what they say, is nothing more than a totalitarian regime. They have no interest in altering the way they operate.
CCP Seeking World Domination
The CCP is seeking to be the global leader. This is happening at a time when the US is going to opposite direction. President Obama was the first President to really show little interest in international affairs. We are now on our 5th term where the US is moving inward, vacating some seats on the global stage.
Of course, this creates a great deal of chaos.
China is intent on filling this void. It has the Belt and Road initiative. There is the situation with Taiwan and the one China policy. It built up its navy at a time when much of the rest of the world cut back on military spending.
A shift in focus might have no impact. After all, the CCP is not new to this. They have faced uprisings being and are adept at crushing them. That means internal conflict might be nothing more than a blip.
Then there is the duration. We are likely to see this with Iran. Any deal struck is only valid through 2028. After that, Trump is gone and another President will be in place. Signing a deal might be a stall tactic.
China doesn't operate on a 90 day time frame like most Americans. It is a culture designed on long term thinking. The CCP, if forced to the table, could just wait Trump out. One problem for China is that Biden wasn't any easier on the Chinese than Trump was. It is a risky strategy for both sides.
In this situation the economics are more straight forward than the geopolitics.
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it is something that is currently out of understanding. two big allies are fighting and millions of people suffering.
Not sure how you consider China and the US allies.
Decades to come, I am not really seeing trump and china war ending anytime soon
It will likely be dictated by how bad things get. The economic fallout is going to be huge.
The tariffs on China definitely have had an impact on unemployment.
"Brilliant analysis! You've explained the deeper motives behind the trade war in a simple yet powerful way. Clearly, it's not just about tariffs but global power moves!"
Nope it's dick swinging competition
What is happening of course goes beyond trade. I see it as a continuous fight for power and dominance. China/US combat didn't start today. My advise should be for Trump to try and be much easier in strict decisions which may wreck US. Currently China is selling to newer market and the US citizens are facing the heat.
I find your analysis of the US-China trade war really insightful. You're right, it's not just about tariffs, but about global power dynamics and ideologies. I think you're spot on about the CCP's long-term strategy and the complexity of this situation.