Tesla announced that it hit its 20,000th Model Y produced in Austin. This did this in about 150 days.
It took them 108 days to do the first 10K, and 43 to do the second. This is how scaling looks.
In this video I discuss what these numbes means and how they could unfold for the next 9 months.
▶️ 3Speak
Summary:
In this video, Task discusses Tesla's production milestone at Giga Texas, where they crossed 20,000 vehicles produced. He compares this achievement to Giga Berlin and Giga Shanghai, highlighting the differences in scaling capabilities and production timelines. Task reflects on his previous projections, citing delays in opening Giga Austin and Berlin. He analyzes the production numbers, estimating future output and scaling potential for Tesla in the upcoming quarters.
Detailed Article:
Task delves into the recent milestone achieved by Tesla at Giga Texas, where they reached 20,000 vehicles produced. He draws comparisons with Giga Berlin and Giga Shanghai, emphasizing the scaling capabilities demonstrated by Tesla's various Gigafactories. Task breaks down the production timeline, noting that it took around 108 days for the first 10,000 vehicles, with the next 10,000 completed in 43 days, showcasing significant scalability.
Comparing Giga Texas to Giga Berlin and Giga Shanghai, Task highlights the differences in production speeds and attributes delays in opening Giga Austin and Berlin to impacting his previous projections. He acknowledges that Tesla started production from scratch in Austin, unlike Shanghai, which already had Model 3 production underway.
Task discusses Tesla's claimed production rate of 2,000 vehicles per week and addresses the sustainability of this rate. He cautions that hitting peak output any given day doesn't guarantee sustained production at that level. Task speculates on potential future production numbers, estimating that Tesla could reach around 25,000 vehicles in the current quarter and potentially double that in the next quarter if they maintain production levels.
Looking ahead, Task predicts Tesla's production output could reach 50,000 vehicles in Q2, representing a 50% increase from the current quarter. He envisions Tesla producing around 75,000 vehicles by the end of Q2 and expresses optimism about the company's scaling potential over the next nine months, particularly if new models like the Cybertruck are factored into production plans.
In conclusion, Task provides a nuanced analysis of Tesla's production milestones, scaling capabilities, and future projections for Giga Texas and other Gigafactories. He offers insights into the factors influencing production rates and emphasizes the importance of sustained scaling for Tesla's growth trajectory in the coming months.