Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
What we are seeing today only happens every other year
For newcomers it is the end of the (crypto) world. For old timers it has more of an entertaining character. I mean seeing all alt coins down by 30%-50% is quite something, no? I can see people with their hands on their heads running around in circles screaming the end is nigh! But then again, looking at the charts this isn't anything extraordinary. In fact we should expect it to happen every 1-2 years on average as the chart here demonstrates:
But still, we always hope that it does not happen. So basically we don't learn very well from the past. With Bitcoin now down to almost 25k we are heading down faster than I anticipated. I definitely saw the ~29k correction as a possibility some weeks ago. But heading directly to ~22k is kinda crazy. But then again, it actually isn't when one looks at that chart. All of those marked corrections were super corrections with a 50%+ correction. So 22k is sitting exactly at that area. Why 22k? Because Bitcoin has so far always corrected back to this trend line in the monthly chart from earlier established support.
The caveat is that for this cycle there is a long wick all the way down to ~3k which makes this supporting trend line not as strong as the previous ones. But you can also see that the correction of the bear market never touched the former ATH again, so with the former ATH at around 20k this would perfectly satisfy that pattern.
Nevertheless, I still think that we could first head back up a bit before eventually reaching that support line. Contrary to earlier posts I don't see Bitcoin breaking above the resistance coming from the previous peaks, however, as we now made a lower low (going sub 29k). Therefore I think these two scenarios are most likely.
Hive is holding up almost as expected
Well, again, I thought just like Bitcoin that we would be holding that first line of defense which would be the 45 cents range equivalent for Hive (29k for Bitcoin). But contrary to other alt coins Hive is not doing so bad. Only a ~35% correction today (ouch!). The top #?!t coin is LUNA with the holders revealing them all to be a bit on the LUNAtic side 😅 by having lost over 97%. I think that is a first for a previously top 20(?) coin. Then there is a long list of alt coins down 40-60%...
... and eventually we see Hive in the middle. So not good, but not bad compared to other coins....
Take a break from craptos.. eh cryptos
Whatever you lost in the last couple of days, don't panic. That's never a good thing to do. Rather, realize that this is what cryptos do. They scare people and they make them euphoric. It's basically like a drug. But that effect gets less when one thinks long term.
- Am I invested in a coin/project with fundamentals? (developers, community, distribution, decentralization of power etc.)
- Am I making a return for simply holding the coin? (On Hive you get a ~10% APR for holding it as Hive Power)
- Am I holding more than one coin / Have I distributed my funds? (this also includes DEFI pools with stable coins etc.)
...
If you can answer these questions in the positive you should be fine in the long run. Have a great day! 😎
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!
The best time to hold and buy more?🤔
yes, although we could get another drop to 22k in the next weeks/months (if not days). But now is a great accumulation zone
Agree, i think we will hit 200 weekly MA as previous cycles bottom. Im just dca'ing back, and you where right on Hive, i think we will have som weeks if not months to accumulate in 22-29k range, its also the range for electricity cost to production cost, a great buyzone for next cycle top..
I agree, good time to buy ,but going to 22 would be nice. I'm going to hold out and see if it dips. I always err on the side of caution, when I sell I always sell half of what I 'told myself' I'd sell next time it goes up and when I buy, I do it in dribs and drabs, but I always think that the tortoise always beats the hare :) Good analysis @tobetada
Thank you @tobetada, always entertained and always interested in your words and analysis.
What goes up, must come down, so I expect Bitcoin, Ethereum, Hive and Leo too.
Posted using LeoFinance Mobile