Crypto Analysis | Update on ETH, possible top of 5-7k in 6 weeks

in LeoFinance9 days ago

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ETH is seeing upward momentum after being dormant for longer than expected

Some months ago I predicted ETH to go to 4-5k, but I anticipated this to happen much earlier. With BNB and other rivaling defi projects ETH lay somewhat dormant for a while as capital shifted to these other projects. However, now that ETh is back on the move, let's see where we are at.

I have so far maintained that these ovals mark the same stage of the cycle.

eth1d.jpg

However, it has become clear that there has been a shift. The last part of the current movement I think should therefore correspond more closely to the part marked in the this graph. This shift has been very subtle and hard to overlook as the breakout from the channel hasn't been as clear as in 2017 (look at the channel below the first oval, it corresponds to the one crossing through the current one).

eth4d.jpg

Let me a bit clearer by numbering the peaks. This is from 2017:

eth2d.jpg

As you can see the pattern applied to 2020/2021 doesn't add up quite as good. It works well until 2, but there wasn't the break out as in 2017, meaning that 2 became 3. As a result, 3 will become 4. You can see that there is a clear trend line coming from 3 in both cycles. This will be the crucial resistance for the short to mid term movement.

eth3d.jpg

You can see that this resistance runs all the way up to 7k. The correction seen today should be supported by the trend line coming all the way back from Mach of last year. I therefore expect price to move upwards quite rapidly until June when I think the crypto market will have its first major peak (there should be another one around October/November/December). It is as of now unclear how high this peak will be, but it should be between 5 and 7k, depending on how bitcoin will perform. This would then be followed by a big correction of about 40% to around 3-4k.

As expected ETH/BTC has also had a major upward move. I think it could top out at around 0.065 to 0.085, followed by a strong correction and one more push upwards.

eth5d.jpg

 


As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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Thanks for sharing your TA Tobey, unfortunately I already sold my small position yesterday 😂. I forgot that after the Berlin Devcon the price will go up. Maybe I got bored waiting but as always I appreciate all your TA posts hope to see more in the future

thanks for the feedback! glad that it is helpful; Ethereum will definitely reach 5k this cycle (as in 100% confidence :D) 10-20k I think is possible, but we'll see that more clearly in a couple of weeks

Great post, looking forward for it :)

As always, great post.

Have you taken a look at litecoin? The LTC/BTC chart seems to be repeating a fractal as well. It's a huge one from years ago, the price bottomed out in the same range and there's a massive pump right after in both cases.

I'll check it out!

I love your analysis. So clean and logical. How high do you think ETH will go as a cycle peak?

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it works until the markets get illogical 😅 I think the top of this cycle is still unclear, but it will become somewhat predictable in June when we see where the market tops out there (if that happens anyway...)

Good point.

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Hey @tobetada
Sorry to jump in with an off-topic comment.
I'm looking for support for HiveSQL. While "approved", the proposal is now unfunded because of the @hbdstabilizer consuming all DHF daily budget.

Do you mind voting for the HiveSQL proposal so it can stay free to use for all devs and users?
Thank you for your help!

no problem, great work on your project! Supported :)

You made it @tobetada! HiveSQL is now back to free 🎉

Thank you for your support, much appreciated!