Once more we ride...
I only logged in now, well after the pump so I didn't get a chance to sell the local top. But the CEX whales are having fun again it seems. This massive pump comes just 26 days after we had the first one this year. This one is a bit smaller than the last one, but it is still around $100 Million daily volume. For some reasons I am unsure, Hive can pull these numbers off while being pretty far down the crypto ladder. I have been arguing that these Hive pumps seem to be confirming a bottom and a macro trend change. This one today fits in quite nicely.
Yet it is always disappointing to see these pumps getting eaten up so fast. Price has already crashed by 30% is down back in the 6 cents area. In fact, these pumps don't seem to be doing anything sustainable for price it seems. Depending on the time frame, we get different directions of price movements. But since April price is up on average.
What happened previously?
Let's go back to the last two bottoms and see what happened back then. Did we see a similar pattern?
I would actually argue that this time is different. While price has moved in a similar way (volatile movement within a consolidation), volume is behaving rather different this time. As you can see there was virtually no volume in 2021 and 2024. But this time there are massive volume candles with hundreds of million $ traded in mere days. Before we have seen such a movement only in times after the consolidation phase had finished. But what does it mean for Hive if we are already seeing such action potentially before the next leg up?
First, I think it signals actual demand. This demand may merely be for speculation and making money off of price manipulation. But still, I think we wouldn't be seeing this if Hive was "dead". It also confirms to me that the 5-6 cents area is the macro bottom. It seems more likely that Hive will sustainably go up in price after this rather than continue the downtrend. Finally, I think this activity may also signal a strong and fast reversal back to the ~30 cents area which can be seen in the macro resistance coming from the two lines in the top of the chart.
There is also another option. Perhaps Hive's consolidation phase has already passed and these pumps are the onset of the impulse wave. This would actually fit pretty good as well:
However, previously we have seen price not go back lower after such a pump which is why this seems like an outlier. In any case, both scenarios would suggest that Hive's price is about to go up big time.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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Nice write‑up as always. I’m just reading the structure a bit differently.
We made a LH vs the previous pump, HL still intact, but no HTF trend change yet.
If we look at ENJ and ORDI, both did the same thing: huge exit pumps → bleed. In your previous post I shared the same charts, here they are updated since then.
Macro‑cycle wise:
Nov ’21 ATH → Aug ’24 bearlow = 987 days
Jan ’25 ATH → now = ~500 days
If history repeats, HIVE’s bear phase usually lasts much longer.
So until a clear HTF trend change forms, I’m still treating these as exit pumps, not the start of a new macro impulse.
If we’re lucky, we get one more exit pump toward the Oct ’25 candle top (0.20) before the multi‑month bleed. That’s the one I want to sell.
Hmm I haven't looked into those other coins to see if they are comparable to Hive. Since I think Hive has been in a bear since 2021 and lost 99% value and also shows the same consolidation pattern than in 2020, my bet is that this should be the trend change and macro low. But I do agree that the 20-30 cents area will probably lead to a longer sell off should we reach it again.
I couldn't take the full advantage of this pump. I sold each 25% at 0.0745, 0.078, 0.08 and 0.082 then bough back at 0.007. In the end, I got ~12% from this pump instead of 60%.
Anyway, better than nothing
The 60% move is impressive, but what is more interesting is the volume behind it. Previous Hive pumps in 2024/2025 faded quickly because they were mostly spot buying on small order books. This time there seems to be something structural — whether it is the L2 narrative or actual builder activity, the follow-through will tell the real story. Watching the next 2-3 weeks closely.
I am hoping for the big-time pump to happen
I am not surprised that the pump did not much last long similar to the previous one
!BBH