As an analyst myself I only know that too well :D But I guess it's about probabilities; if you can give a greater probability for a price to go up or down that might be helpful for someone. For bitcoin I think it's 60%-70% for a bear scenario (short to mid-term)
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Are you basing that on relative weakness?
Still about the same arguments from a while back: https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-a-word-of-caution-for-bitcoin