Today I have been thinking about the end of the Bear Market, or, rather, when its end could be... the truth is that we are not experiencing a situation comparable to the other cycles, at least in crypto.
And looking for analogies in the past doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do.
Simply, the scenario in which we have to live is not comparable to the one that the vast majority of us have lived, and, even if you rush me, some of our parents either...
I don't want to sound catastrophic but lately, I have been reading about the subject of inflation and by when the effects that the central banks are applying will be noticeable... some calculate that 2024 may be a year in which inflation begins to be "controlled". Others think it will be from 2025 onwards.
And when they say "controlled" it does not mean that there is no inflation but that it remains at more contained levels, quite possibly around 5%, which is a bit far from the famous objective of "ideal annual inflation of 2%".
All this without taking into account that, at any moment, some of the great world leaders, I include here those from Russia, the USA, the EU, China or even North Korea, can change their minds and turn the whole world upside down or worse than what is...
For all this, talking about an end to the Bear Market seems ironic or almost utopian at this time.
Regarding BITCOIN and the crypto world, surviving is going to be difficult, although it seems that BITCOIN is doing really well these last few months, ranging in perpetuity (LoL).
80743 blocks left until the next halving
That gives us an approximate date of March 2024...this date is consistent with what some analysts think that we will begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel worldwide...I hope it will be sooner, at least in BITCOIN since the end of the Bear Market is usually brought forward to the Halving date, however, I am not sure that this will happen this time.
On the other hand, I have the impression that there are too many people caught having bought at the top of the Bull Run...and so, I have the feeling that if at some point BTC gets a price of, let's say, $40,000, don't think that it will be quickly mitigated by thousands of retailers trying to recover their FIAT due to the crisis this time?
There are too many uncontrolled variables at stake and a lot of energy crisis that, in my opinion, has only just begun... first we have to see how the old continent faces the looming winter, then we will see if we can forecast something more precise and predictable...
Today I'm a bit negative, I know, maybe it's my state of mind these last few days, however, I think it's better not to have too many illusions for the medium term, this winter may last longer than expected.
@tipu curate
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I felt the same yesterday. Considering that crypto is about a new world based on whole new principles, the factors influencing the old world shouldn't affect it that much. What's also typical for crypto is that it usually prices in negative events way ahead of traditional markets and the recession and all the bad shit happening in the world might be already priced in. I'm not expecting any bull market any time soon, but I don't think we will spend much time under $20k either. It's near maximum disbelief periods when trends change. Watching our emotions is probably more valuable than looking at charts.
It's the whole economy that is sinking, actually, BTC is doing pretty well maintaining the range IMO
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I think this bear market will really be brutal at this point. Energy prices are out of control and the Bitcoin Difficulty is going up which will spell doom for Bitcoin miners. They will be forced into a massive capitulation event to pay for their equipment and electricity. That will cause more exchanges to be exposed as being over leveraged and cause more stuff to come down. People are out of money in the United States and other places
The situation is getting worse here in Europe as well
At this rate am not even bothered by 'when' anymore. Whenever it does, I'll be ready to capitalize.
In my experience this is the most longest bear market and the bad thing is that it is not yet over