Analyzing Fundamentals Behind Arbitrage Trade With 86.66% ROI in @splinterlands

in LeoFinance2 months ago

When there are arbitrage trades with double digit profit percentages in a cryptocurrency project, I take it as a sign of a lack of inflows into the ecosystem. There are those who have already invested hundreds of thousands of dollars into the game. There could be some Whales with 7 figure investments in @splinterlands and yet there are trades like the one you can clearly see below.

I understand that it is the Card Market that get most of the attention and many players are unaware of the price movements of other NFT assets in the game. If I can get some of the readers of this article to make some trades and see the above price differences between Totems and Totem Fragments erode, I will find that to be a very pleasant outcome. I am personally unable to participate in this arbitrage trade because I have other priorities in the game.

Differences for Price Arbitrage

Totem Fragments have to be combined together to turn them into Totems that can be used in Praetoria to boost resource production. The number of Totem fragments needed are the same as the Max Level of each respective rarity.

10 Common Totem Fragments = $12
8 Rare Totem Fragments = $60
6 Epic Totem Fragments = $270
4 Legendary Totem Fragments = $900

Common Totems are the anomaly here being around 9% cheaper to straight up purchase the completed Totem.

Understanding Reasons Behind These Prices

Finding these Totem Fragments is not an easy task. The original goal of @splinterlands team was to make sure that it will take many years to find all the Fragments necessary to create the complete Totem supply. There are no plans to deviate from these plans. Being a part of Praetoria itself require a significant investment. Currently I have managed to have 37 Plots ready for productions (with few of them producing nothing due to lack of DEC). This is more of a Dolphin territory.

Despite all of the above mentioned, I have not been able to find any Epic or Legendary Totem Fragments. "Luck" does play a part in finding these Fragments. I am yet to be convinced that mine is a case particularly bad "luck". Totems inflation is slow and nothing is going to make much of a difference.

Fragments Don't Do Anything!

Players need to either have many Plots (only viable for Whales) or sell the Fragments if they need fast profits. Players can buy some Fragments to complete the missing pieces. There is room for speculators who want to trade these assets with low trading volume and then there are players like me who are forced to HODL.

Since Common Totem Fragments are commonly found and cheap in price, more players can easily buy some Fragments to complete a Common Totem. This is a simple explanation for why the 10 Fragments are priced 9% above a completed Totem. There are many players who only want a few Fragments and $1.20 is an affordable price.

The same demand is not there for the other rarities crating a wide price difference that is ripe for arbitrage. This is how expensive a completed Totems is compared to the amount of Fragments needed:

Rare -> 33.33% More Expensive
Epic -> 48.14% More Expensive
Legendary -> 86.66% More Expensive

The Inflows Are Not Enough

@aggroed being on Killer Whales (now on Apple TV+) most certainly helped to bring more attention to @splinterlands. There is an over 30% increase in search volume leading upto the Apple TV+ release (which happened after all the episodes finished airing). This level of interest is still not good enough. @splinterlands had to fire the marketing team in the bear market. We are not doing great when compared to other more centralized and arguably less innovative games.

There Are Investors Who Are Unable to Invest

I can confidently state this fact because I am one of these investors. The bear market was very harsh and I had everything betting on cryptosphere. When 99% of one's wealth is in a single area of investment that is barely out of the bear market; there is very little funds left to do any amount of investing despite the desires. This is what I meant by "forced to HODL". I cannot buy more and I lack the desire to sell. Even when I invest in @splinterlands, I have bigger priorities than Totems.

We Need Investors from Outside of HIVE

It is hard to avoid @splinterlands for active HIVE users. It is the most used DAPP we have on our blockchain and I do believe that most of the users have invested what they can into @splinterlands assets. Existing HIVE userbase understand the value of HIVE and likely unable to invest more without seeing large parabolic gains for their portfolios. Outsiders who have not hear about HIVE are the best path to generate more capital inflows.

Once the "New Player Experience" is completed, it will be the best time to aggressively pursue marketing + exchange listings (CEX + DEX). @strategizer could be a tremendous help for HIVE's future and you can support their DHF Proposal to help grow faster in 2024 and beyond.

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You are doing better than I am on the luck factor, I think! 😀 I haven't found any rare or higher totem fragments (but I found 9 common ones).

Fragments Don't Do Anything!

If you can wait for Land 2.0, there, totem fragments (not full totems!) have utility for the Secret of Praetoria.

At least you are getting more of Common Fragments and you will have earned your first totems fast.

If you can wait for Land 2.0

I'm don't plan to go anywhere for at least a few years. I will definitely be waiting for Land 2.0 release. I wish the team had more resources to hire more developers. It may not even expedite the release of Land 2.0 because programmers must be made familiar with the codebase first. At least it should make developing other features faster. We have great plans and very slow execution.

At least you are getting more of Common Fragments and you will have earned your first totems fast.

I'm not sure I'll combine them. I need more details on how totem fragments work for the Secret of Praetoria before I do an action that might be irreversible, and we might need fragments then.

I'm don't plan to go anywhere for at least a few years.

Great! I was referring to if you'd rather keep them than sell them.

I will definitely be waiting for Land 2.0 release. I wish the team had more resources to hire more developers. It may not even expedite the release of Land 2.0 because programmers must be made familiar with the codebase first.

Yeah, but new devs might free up old devs for Land. As I said when Land 1.5 was released, I wouldn't expect Land 2.0 before the end of the year (Q4). I haven't changed my mind.

I wouldn't expect Land 2.0 before the end of the year (Q4).

The timeline does make sense to me. We don't even have the GRAIN:DEC LPs released yet. At the time I think "New Player Experience" is the best thing to focus on. The team is not even making much money from Rebellion Expansion due to lack of sales. More players should kick off a new flywheel effect. Then we can start teasing them about Land 2.0.

Yeah, that's probably true, but if they don't show something for land at some point, landowners will feel quite salty. Personally, I can wait, since my plan was for Q4 anyway.

Regarding the Grain-DEC LP, if I haven't misheard, it will be added now on April 2nd or the next scheduled maintenance window.

Regarding the Grain-DEC LP, if I haven't misheard, it will be added now on April 2nd or the next scheduled maintenance window.

Thank you for the news! If there are new features released regularly (even if they are small features), it could motivate the weak hands to keep HODLing for longer. I'm okay with waiting as long as the release itself goes as smoothly as possible.

You're welcome! It's true, regular updates keep players' spirits high when there aren't any market actions to do that.

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