... HBD will continue to be the better bet until haircut season is on.
We will probably agree with you entirely if that last part doesn't concern us, as when it happens and, i.e., HBD drops from the current $1 to $0.75, it would be, in a second, a permanent loss for many.
What we mean by that is the following.
Let's say one invested $1,000 in HBD. After a year, it would be $1,200. If the haircut rule gets implemented the following day at the above-mentioned price ($0.75), those 1,200 HBD would be $900, which is a 10% loss on initial investment (of $1,000).
If the haircut rule gets implemented after two years, that $ 1,000 (with compounding interest) would be 1,440 HBD x $0.75 = $1,080, which would be a total profit of only 8% after two yeas period of "frozen funds" on the initial investment (of $1,000).
On the other hand, as you said, the HIVE price is way more volatile and unpredictable.
Therefore, we think that both paths are somewhat of a gamble, and on both of which one should be prepared for all sorts of outcomes (from worst to best) and as well nimble, quick, and ready to adapt to rapid changes that might occur.
!ALIVE
!PIZZA
HBD compounds every 30 days. The interest from HBD is actually a bit higher than you stated.
Another interesting aspect of HBD is that whenever the price of HIVE drops significantly, many players convert their HBD to HIVE.
In the last two market dips people converted over a million HBD into HIVE. I suspect that, if we saw the price of HIVE fall below $0.2, we could see 3 to 4 million HBD converted to HIVE. This would decrease the market cap of HBD and increase that of HIVE.
Ausbit says the haircut will happen if HIVE drops to $0.0783.
But, if people converted their HBD to HIVE, then the HBD/HIVE ratio would change and the haircut probably wouldn't kick in until the price dropped below $0.05.
!PIZZA
Yes, you are right! We know that HBD compounds every 30 days, but we did just a quick, rough math.
There is also a very good post published about a week ago that explains a pretty detailed (even going through history examples) what you just said. So currently, there is no panic that an HBD haircut will happen soon and overnight.
Despite that, and from our project perspective, we are, at the moment, somewhat forced to focus primarily on our HP, as otherwise, we wouldn't have the "fuel" to support the publishers. And that's our main goal (especially, although not solely, having in mind newer Hive members).
Besides that, if we all abandon HIVE (and HP) and move our funds to HBD, the blockchain might lose its primary purpose or maybe even some sort of its functionality.
On the other hand, we also don't want to put all our eggs in just one basket. Therefore, we are trying to "juggle" by distributing our investments in different promising projects as on-chain (including HBD) the same off-chain, and balance them all together as best we can and know.
Apart from all of that, thank you very much for all the inputs that you shared here, as we find it valuable food for thought.
!ALIVE | !CTP
I am not happy about the high interest on HBD because it seems to draw resources from the other projects in the ecosystem.
I powered up enough HP to be a dolphin. I feel devastated by the steady decrease of the tribal coins on HE.
As for panicking. People evolved from herd animals. People are sparked by movement.
Neither of the last two dips were deep enough to justify a panic, but the fact is that, in the last two market dips, we saw people convert about 10% of the HBD to HIVE. The movement sparked the sell off.
Oddly our biggest problem would happen if market capitalization of HBD increased rapidly over several months without notice.
I am happy that you are focused on your project and hot HBD.
!WINE
There are a couple of HE tokens that we have monitored for some time, and unfortunately, we have to agree with you on this one.
But there is one HE tribal token that stands out and slowly moves in a different direction than the other majority. We are talking about the ALIVE token.
Here are some numbers from our data collection.
We believe, in some future market rise(s), the vast majority of the same people would convert it back from HIVE to HBD.
And last but not least, thank you for understanding our position and recognizing the intention! 😊
!ALIVE
@yintercept! You Are Alive so I just staked 0.1 $ALIVE to your account on behalf of @vocup. (3/20)
The tip has been paid for by the We Are Alive Tribe through the earnings on @alive.chat, feel free to swing by our daily chat any time you want.
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@yintercept! You Are Alive so I just staked 0.1 $ALIVE to your account on behalf of @vocup. (1/20)
The tip has been paid for by the We Are Alive Tribe through the earnings on @alive.chat, feel free to swing by our daily chat any time you want.
@yintercept! You Are Alive so I just staked 0.1 $ALIVE to your account on behalf of @vocup. (2/20)
The tip has been paid for by the We Are Alive Tribe through the earnings on @alive.chat, feel free to swing by our daily chat any time you want.
