How much time have you spend in the market? a decade? half a decade? a few years? some months? Everyone has an experience proportional to the amount of time they've spent in the market.
Source
Warren Buffett, one of the most well known investors started investing when he was just 11 years of age. I'm sure most of us don't know what the stock market was when we're at that age. Yet this guy was there hustling. It is said that if he had retired before he was 60 years of age then many people wouldn't know about him and 99% of his wealth was made after he turned 50. Imagine that!
Statistically, he was not very lucky in picking the right investments. However, over the years, he has manage to develop a 'skin in the game'. Now, he can just read a bunch of papers and know whether the investment is good or bad. I wish I could have that kind of super power. I know Mr. Buffett's story is not the norm here but it is an accurate depiction of what it takes to achieve success in any market.
When Will Your Timing Be Correct?
When it comes to investing, most of us have this clear cut attitude. We want to wait for the perfect time to enter a market, make a big ROI and exit all in a short period of time. This attitude doesn't only happen with stocks or cryptocurrencies, it also happens in many other areas. Real estate for example. Think about it, If it was that simple, wouldn't there be more winners than losers? Yet people (myself included) fall for the trap over and over again.The problem with timing the market is you miss the mark most of the time. One of the reasons is because you're looking from the outside in, so you tend to have inaccurate information. You can't gather the right data when you're looking from a limited vantage point.
A Different Vantage Point
Much like Mr. Buffett, you begin to slowly develop a 'skin in the game' mentality when you spend considerable time in the market. This gives you a wider perspective to look from, you notice and understand the details that the outsider often miss.Your predictions is also more accurate. You see the wave before it's coming and know how to prepare to surf it. The average outsider either comes too early when the wave hasn't build up yet or comes too late when the wave is dispersing. In most cases, they just totally miss the peak of the wave. Wrong timing is part of timing :)
Conclusion
Timing the market is like playing the lottery, your chances of winning are very slim. There are really no shortcuts. You just have to commit and get to work. Spending time on a market gives you the ability to accurately (nearly) spot opportunities and take advantage of them. If you like, you can say opportunities find you because you have gathered a ton of information that the 'timer' doesn't have.
Are you still timing the market?
Thanks for reading!
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