Another week, another draw waiting for my name to pop out, 76 more winners that arent me - The chase is real!
I may sound bitter but I’m not, I have really enjoyed playing frontier mode and have done so with no expectations of winning a prize in the draws, I have picked up a few gold foils and even started a third account from scratch to see if you can progress from frontier to modern with just a spell book.
To get to the point of this post though, how is frontier mode progressing and are we adding new accounts? I did look at this a few weeks ago and will update this every few weeks going forward.
I'm no blockchain wizard so this is being done the old fashioned way of copy paste into a spreadsheet and have a look at the data...
per the splinterlands website (splinterlands.com/frontier/fortune-draw ) the results are as follows
Unfortunately when you click on the results link the data is slightly different - if anyone can point me in the direction of the correct data I would appreciate it - I have put in a support ticket so the team are aware there is a discrepancy but i imagine its not high priority right now.
The data if you add the entries in the results page gives a total number of entries of 571,138 compared to 581,859 a difference of about 11,000 or 2% - note: until week 6 the data agreed.
But we will take the data from the results page's as correct for our review.
Unique Accounts
The number of unique accounts in frontier mode is shrinking, but the number of Lite accounts is growing so frontier mode appears to be doing what it should be in bringing new players in - obviously could just be existing players setting up new accounts and just getting a spellbook if they win a draw... The number of unique accounts to date is somewhere in the region of 5800, i say somewhere as some accounts may have never managed to get a draw and others may have converted from lite to full accounts.
The announcement of new reward cards in modern has more than likely also led to the decrease as players shift back to try and earn as much glint as possible in preparation.
Entries per Account
Although the number of accounts is declining the average number of draw entries picked up by each player is increasing on average, the number of entries for winners did drop slightly this week. My assumption is that more players are reaching the higher levels and gaining more entries in Gold
Multiple Winners?
This one is a bit of a deceiving one, the figures would suggest the not many players have won multiple prizes in the draws with 610 unique winners in 684 chances, however its quite obvious that this is hiding the true fact of multi accounting - nothing wrong with that, I'm playing 3 accounts, but it makes it difficult to distinguish from my data, taking the unique accounts data it would appear that 545 accounts have 1 win, 56 accounts have 2 wins and 9 accounts have 3 wins, although as I said, take that with a pinch of salt! But either way 9 accounts have won in 33% of the draws.... for fun i asked chatGPT to produce a probability table based on 36 draws and 65,000 entries per week
9 people hit 1 in 70,000,000 chances - i'd be putting my money on the lottery!
I am hoping to learn a bit more about the blockchain over the next few months, before the end of the draws and just see what happens to some of the prizes in the draws too, one for next time...
haha, after I got nothing for the 9th time in a row, I started looking at the data, too. I am baffled at how some of these people have won 3 times, including some people who got a GFA, a BF, and a BFA. But I just copied the output data that you've said is inaccurate, so I'm not sure if it's correct.
Quite a few have won twice. I bought two cards yesterday off someone who won four times just yesterday between four of their accounts. I have to wonder how many they have if they managed to FOUR times in a week. They got a GFA Mystic Scaleweaver yesterday. I do play a couple of accounts (usually about 3) and none of them have ever won anything.
I hope they're looking into the lite accounts, too. I don't think they're all new people. I think they're (possibly) giving someone a low-risk way to bot accounts.