The last couple of weeks in crypto land have been exciting and interesting (for crypto geeks like me anyway!). Before the fork into Hive we saw the price of Steem pump to around 0.35 - as would be expected as it was announced they were doing a 1:1 airdrop. The price of Steem has since gone back to the 0.17 mark. Meanwhile the price of Hive started creeping up and got to over 0.3, and people were optimistic that it would rally - some hoping for up to $1. However, the price dropped in the last few days and sits at around $0.11 at the moment.
So what does this have to do with the long haul? I suspect that these fluctuations will last for atleast until those who are powering down Steem has finished - and this will be putting downwards pressure on the price of Steem. Some of those will migrate fully to Hive and buy up more Hive tokens which in theory should stabilize and increase its value. There will still be many who are working out their positions in this space we are in - some staying on Steemit, some coming to Hive and some working between the two. And as things change this could take some time and working out.
Two things that will hold back Hive from instant or quick success is ´Brand recognition´ and ´Brand loyalty´ - these are fairly straightforward concepts with major consequences. With brand recognition it means that many more people will be aware of Steem(it) than of Hive - Steem has been around for a few years now, while Hive is just a few weeks old. I can guarantee if we surveyed a random selection of the public many more would be aware of Steem than of Hive, even if they didnt fully understand what Steem was or what it does. This means that as people start going down the rabbithole of crypto they are more likely to join Steemit than hive (for now anyway!). On top of this, the concept of brand loyalty, means that even though it might be a sinking ship some users may have developed a loyalty to Steem and stay. I have wrote about this previously - in this case I had become loyal to Steemit, even though I knew there were much better options such as Steempeak.
As new users come to Hive though we will grow and develop and (hopefully) create a good reputation for ourselves here on Hive. I have already seen a few new followers on Hive, while on Steem I wasnt getting any new followers at all. This suggests newer users are coming onboard to Hive. Looking at Steemit compared to Hive is like night and day - Steemit trending is awful, and full of old posts now, and a mix of all sorts. Hive has some great content out on a range of topics from great people.
There were a few initiatives to market Steem along the way, and the fact that it was one of the first social media/blogging sites to use a block chain helped its publicity. I would love to see some of the same initiatives developed here on Hive - we wont grow in value without gaining new users and investors.
If you expect Hive to magically moon to $1 or more in the next few weeks then you are only kidding yourself and are in for a big disappointment. Sadly we have been waiting for Steem to moon for a couple of years now, and as we migrate to Hive we will be waiting alot longer.
What are your thoughts??
I really don’t care what the price is five weeks from now. I care about what the value will be five years from now.
BOOM summed it up well @preparedwombat!
Waiting for four years just to start all over again. After four years new fork and then back from the start.
It's a waste of time.
But some people making big money while we hodling and hoping.
Yeah it is frustrating but it beats the alternative of the way things were heading with Steem and Justin Sun
I'm buying so hope it goes down.