Very nice wrap-up!
I have to admit I was somewhat skeptical as I have never (in 20+ years of being affiliated with content creation venues and online communities) been part of a project where the "splinter group" was able to gain significant traction compared to the original. Typically, divisions are inspired by unhappy people (as was the case here) but the vast majority are too indifferent to move with them. And then there's the old "first mover advantage" to overcome... after 3 years, Steem was pretty firmly "rooted," — to wit, Steem did not just "roll over and die" when Hive was created... even with so many people wishing they did.
I'm very much with you on the marketing and publicity angle. We need to do better. We saw a little of the "true nature" of Hive's core some weeks back when Justine was asking to be paid for marketing and PR efforts and it created a huge uproar, while most people are OK with developers getting funding. Inner politics aside (I used to work in the IT industry, NOT as a developer) most developers know next to nothing about how to cater to and market to NON-developers.