Hey, I am sure you will love @datadash channel in youtube. Nicholus Mertin. According to him stocks are overpriced, fundamentals are not there...please check out his videos.
I get insights from him on many things. For example he said emerging technologies like solar energy for future will pick, and I picked Power Ledger to invest long term.
His channel, infact I am going there now...iching to see his videos that showcase economy so beautifully. You would love him.
Unfortunately, he talks about US market, not directly useful to me, but still he is super facinating.
Your article was nice, I liked it that you see it as over valued and your present reasoning that you can confirm it's a bear market only when market falls 20%...
Reason why stocks are high - stock buybacks, definitely not fundamentals because GDP growth is low I think...not fundamentals surely.
The 20 percent limit of bear market is a general definition, as I linked it on Investopedia.com. But maybe this type of limits have not so much sense. Statistical category only.
The problem with valuation is: It should depend on interests, and interests are on an unprecedented low level. In reality, we are in an unknown territory.
Thank you.